................................................................................................................................. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ....................................................................................................... vii CHAPTER 1: Introduction .......................................................................................................... 1 1.1 British and French Histories of Population ......................................................................... 4 1.2 Historical Literature on Population and Theories of Population ........................................ 8 1.3 Contribution ...................................................................................................................... 14 1.4 Structure of the Dissertation ............................................................................................. 15 CHAPTER 2: Declining Fertility, Public Concern, and the Discipline of Demography ...... 17 2.1 Organizational Actors ....................................................................................................... 19 2.1.1 France: Family Associations .................................................................................... 19 2.1.2 France: Demographic Experts .................................................................................. 21 2.1.3 Britain: The Eugenics Movement and Demographic Experts ................................. 22 2.1.4 Britain: Civil Servants .............................................................................................. 25 2.1.5 Cross-National Commonalities and Contrasts ......................................................... 26 2.2 State Commissions on Population .................................................................................... 28 2.2.1 The French High Committee on Population and the Family (FHC) ........................ 29 2.2.2 The British Royal Commission on Population (BRC) ............................................. 30 2.3 Population Statistics and Conflict between Disciplines: The British Case ....................... 32 2.4. Joint Meetings of the Commissions ................................................................................. 37 2.4.1 The Value of the Population: Quantity and Quality ................................................ 39 2.4.2 Standards of Evaluation and Evidence .................................................................... 42 2.5 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 46 CHAPTER 3: Population Projections and Demographic Futures ......................................... 47 3.1 Research Questions and Analytic Approach ..................................................................... 48 3.1.1 Literature ................................................................................................................. 50 3.1.2 Overview of Population Projections ........................................................................ 52 3.2 Who Makes Projections? .................................................................................................. 55 3.2.1 Organizational Position and Production of Projections ........................................... 59 3.3 How Are Projections Made? ............................................................................................. 60 3.3.1 Single vs. Multiple Variants and the Meaning of Projections ................................. 60 3.4 How Do Projections Differ? ............................................................................................. 65 3.4.1 Data .......................................................................................................................... 65 3.4.2 Evaluating Projections: Error in Growth Rates ....................................................... 67 3.5 Assumptions about Future Fertility .................................................................................. 69 3.5.1 Future Fertility: Equilibrium or Continuing Decline? ............................................. 73 3.5.2 Why do Fertility Assumptions Differ? .................................................................... 76 3.6 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 78