....................................................................................................................................9 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .....................................................................................................10 2. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................14 2.1. SUPPLY AND DEMAND IMPACTS.................................................................................14 2.2. REPORT OBJECTIVES AND DATA SOURCES .................................................................15 2.3. REPORT STRUCTURE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ......................................................16 3. IMPACT ON TEACHERS.....................................................................................................17 3.1. ARE TEACHERS A HIGH-RISK GROUP? ........................................................................17 3.2. LEVEL AND PATTERNS OF TEACHER MORTALITY .......................................................20 3.2.1. Type of teacher ..............................................................................................21 3.2.2. Gender and marital status .............................................................................21 3.2.3. Place of work.................................................................................................21 3.3. OVERALL ATTRITION.................................................................................................22 3.4. MORBIDITY AND ABSENTEEISM .................................................................................22 3.4.1. Motivation and morale ..................................................................................23 3.4.2. Discrimination...............................................................................................24 4. IMPACT ON CHILDREN .....................................................................................................25 4.1. NUMBERS OF CHILDREN DIRECTLY AFFECTED ...........................................................25 4.1.1. Children living with AIDS .............................................................................25 4.1.2. Orphans.........................................................................................................25 4.1.3. Children looking after sick family members..................................................28 4.2. EDUCATIONAL IMPACT ..............................................................................................28 4.2.1. School surveys ...............................................................................................28 4.2.2. Other evidence...............................................................................................31 4.2.3. Attendance rates over time ............................................................................34 4.2.4. Orphans in difficult circumstances................................................................34 5. THE FUTURE IMPACT ON TEACHERS ..........................................................................36 5.1. AIDS DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTION MODELS...............................................................36 5.2. PROJECTED AIDS-RELATED MORTALITY ....................................................................37 5.3. PROJECTED MORBIDITY .............................................................................................41 5.4. AFRICA-WIDE IMPACT ...............................................................................................42 5.5. FUTURE TEACHER REQUIREMENTS ............................................................................42 6. PROJECTED NUMBERS OF AFFECTED CHILDREN...................................................44 6.1. CHILDREN LIVING WITH AIDS...................................................................................44 6.2. CHILD CARERS...........................................................................................................44 6.3. ORPHANS...................................................................................................................44 7. DEVELOPING A COMPREHENSIVE STRATEGIC RESPONSE..................................46 7.1. AIDS IN THE WORKPLACE PROGRAMMES..................................................................46 7.1.1. Prevalence and risk assessment ....................................................................46 7.1.2. Education and prevention..............................................................................46 7.1.3. Counseling and support groups.....................................................................47 7.1.4. Deployment and transfers..............................................................................47 7.1.5. Teaching cover ..............................................................................................47 7.1.6. Medical support.............................................................................................47