The Good Judgment Project
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This article proposes an Item Response Theoretical (IRT) forecasting model that incorporates proper scoring rules and provides… (More)
Let me say from the outset that this is an excellent book to read. It is not only informative, as it should be for a book on… (More)
This paper sets out to explore the relationships between institutional constraints and predictability in geopolitical forecasting… (More)
In a series of reports and meetings in Spring 2011, intelligence analysts and officials debated the chances that Osama bin Laden… (More)
The US Intelligence Community (IC) has been heavily criticized for making inaccurate estimates. Many scholars and officials… (More)
Many methods have been proposed for making use of multiple experts to predict uncertain events such as election outcomes, ranging… (More)