.........................................................................................................................................................1 Background ....................................................................................................................................................1 Purpose and Scope ..............................................................................................................................3 Objectives...............................................................................................................................................3 Composite Management Actions ................................................................................................................3 Consequences of Composite Management Actions ...............................................................................4 Predicting Management Outcomes Using Expert Elicitation ........................................................4 Influence Diagram .......................................................................................................................4 Bayesian Decision Model ..........................................................................................................4 Expert Elicitation Procedures ....................................................................................................7 Predicting DUDs Using IWMM Data .................................................................................................7 Preliminary Comparison of Expert Elicitation and Empirical Data on DUDs ...............................9 Calculating Total Management Benefit from DUDs and King Rail Occupancy ..........................9 Comparing Alternative Composite Management Actions and Assessing Tradeoffs .......................10 Creating Portfolios of Management Actions ..................................................................................10 Building Carrying Capacity and Cost Constraints .........................................................................11 Carrying Capacity Constraint ...................................................................................................11 Cost Constraints .........................................................................................................................11 Constrained Optimization .........................................................................................................11 Portfolio Comparisons ........................................................................................................................11 Updates to Model Predictions and Expected Utility ..............................................................................14 Adaptive Management Using the Bayesian Decision Model ..............................................................16 Management Considerations ....................................................................................................................17 Changes to the Bayesian Decision Model ..............................................................................................17 Summary........................................................................................................................................................19 References Cited..........................................................................................................................................19 Appendix 1. Expert Elicitation Guidance for Clarence Cannon National Wildlife Refuge Prototype Decision Model ............................................................................................................23 Appendix 2. Assigning Composite Management Actions in a Retrospective Analysis ...................26 Appendix 3. Empiricaland Elicitation-Based Dabbler Use-Days and Utilities .................................27 v