• Corpus ID: 151201352

Forecasting the Ph.D. Labor Market: Pitfalls for Policy. Technical Report Number 2.

@inproceedings{Freeman1974ForecastingTP,
  title={Forecasting the Ph.D. Labor Market: Pitfalls for Policy. Technical Report Number 2.},
  author={Richard B. Freeman and David W. Breneman},
  year={1974},
  url={https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:151201352}
}

• R. Freeman, D. Breneman
• Published 1 April 1974
• Economics, Business

This paper provides a critical review of the purposes, current techniques and potential methods for analyzing doctorate and other high-level labor markets. Chapter 1 describes and interprets the doctorate manpower market of the 1960's and early 1970's, as well as the forecasted manpower crisis of the 1970's and early 19801s. Chapter 2 gives a detailed critique of the shortcomings of current forecasting techniques, suggests possible ways to improve the methodology of forecasts, and evaluates the… 

This paper provides a critical review of the purposes, current techniques and potential methods for analyzing doctorate and other high-level labor markets. Chapter 1 describes and interprets the doctorate manpower market of the 1960's and early 1970's, as well as the forecasted manpower crisis of the 1970's and early 19801s. Chapter 2 gives a detailed critique of the shortcomings of current forecasting techniques, suggests possible ways to improve the methodology of forecasts, and evaluates the major implications of current forecasts that the doctorate market and graduate education face a substantial glut of Ph.D.'s in the near future. Chapter 3 deals with the market adjustment process characteristic of Ph.t. labor markets, by which individuals and enterprises respond to supply-demand imbalances. One possible scenario for the doctorate market in the future is sketched out. Chapter 4 discusses policy implications of the analysis and suggests some'practical next steps that would further improve our understanding of this complex subject. The paper also includes two technical appendices, dealing with (a) the economics of shortages and surpluses, and (b) models of the market adjustment process. (Author) U S DEPARTMENTOF HEALTN EDUCATION 11.WELf ARE NATIONAL slySTITOE OF EDUCATION c DOCu VENt NAS !OF". wf pp() Duc E Y AS REN,,fD rROM t.41 PE Q50% OR ORGAY/AT,0% OR,0J% PO,orS d OR 00NION5 Sta 'EC) DO NOT NECESCAQ't.v REPRE GE NT Og ,f Al %Af ,ONAl %ST. TU Tr Or En it l',74 POt,,,0% ok PoL y L Forecasting the Ph.D. Labor Market: Pitfalls for Policy RICHARD B. FREEMAN Associate Professor of Economics Harvaid University DAVID W. BIENEMAN Stag Director National Board on Graduate Education . A Technical Report presented to the NATIONAL BOARD ON GRADUATE EDUCATION