Zonally contrasting shifts of the tropical rainbelt in response to climate change

  title={Zonally contrasting shifts of the tropical rainbelt in response to climate change},
  author={Antonios Mamalakis and James T. Randerson and Jin‐Yi Yu and Michael S. Pritchard and Gudrun Magnusdottir and Padhraic Smyth and Paul A. Levine and Sungduk Yu and Efi Foufoula‐Georgiou},
  journal={Nature climate change},
  pages={143 - 151}
Future changes in the position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ; a narrow band of heavy precipitation in the tropics) with climate change could affect the livelihood and food security of billions of people. Although models predict a future narrowing of the ITCZ, uncertainties remain large regarding its future position, with most past work focusing on zonal-mean shifts. Here we use projections from 27 state-of-the-art climate models and document a robust zonally varying ITCZ response… 
A globally consistent local-scale assessment of future tropical cyclone risk
There is considerable uncertainty surrounding future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency and intensity, particularly at local scales. This uncertainty complicates risk assessments and
Changes in Hadley circulation and intertropical convergence zone under strategic stratospheric aerosol geoengineering
Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering has been proposed as a potential solution to reduce climate change and its impacts. Here, we explore the responses of the Hadley circulation (HC) intensity and
Disentangling the effect of regional SST bias on the double-ITCZ problem
This study investigates the causes of the double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) bias, characterized by too northward northern Pacific ITCZ, too dry equatorial Pacific, and too zonally
Interhemispheric antiphasing of neotropical precipitation during the past millennium.
SignificanceUnderstanding Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) responses to external forcing is critical for predicting climate change in a warming world. We analyzed paleoclimate records of
Possible Thermal Effect of Tibetan Plateau on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is important in shaping the global climate. To understand how its thermal condition may affect the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), we conduct a series of
The Spatiotemporal Evolution of Rainfall Extremes in a Changing Climate: A CONUS‐Wide Assessment Based on Multifractal Scaling Arguments
Given the rapidly changing climate, accurate spatiotemporal information on the evolution of extreme rainfall events is required for flood risk assessment and the design of resilient infrastructure.
Using the WWF Water Risk Filter to Screen Existing and Projected Hydropower Projects for Climate and Biodiversity Risks
Climate change is predicted to drive various changes in hydrology that can translate into risks for river ecosystems and for those who manage rivers, such as for hydropower. Here we use the WWF Water
A storyline view of the projected role of remote drivers on summer air stagnation in Europe and the United States
Storylines of atmospheric circulation change, or physically self-consistent narratives of plausible future events, have recently been proposed as a non-probabilistic means to represent uncertainties
A ∼12 Myr Miocene Record of East Asian Monsoon Variability From the South China Sea
The long‐term evolution of the East Asian Monsoon and the processes controlling its variability under changing climate boundary conditions remain enigmatic. Here, we integrate new and published


Response of the Intertropical Convergence Zone to Climate Change: Location, Width, and Strength
The ITCZ has narrowed over recent decades yet its location has remained approximately constant, and climate models project further narrowing and a weakening of the average ascent within the I TCZ as the climate continues to warm.
Impact of surface temperature biases on climate change projections of the South Pacific Convergence Zone
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is poorly represented in global coupled simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), with trademark biases such as the
Response of the ITCZ to Northern Hemisphere cooling
Climate simulations, using models with different levels of complexity, indicate that the north‐south position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) responds to changes in interhemispheric
More extreme swings of the South Pacific convergence zone due to greenhouse warming
Climate modelling evidence is presented for a near doubling in the occurrences of zonal SPCZ events between the periods 1891–1990 and 1991–2090 in response to greenhouse warming, even in the absence of a consensus on how ENSO will change.
Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble
The results identify areas of the Amazon, the Sahel and tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and the Tibetan Plateau as persistent regional climate change hotspots throughout the 21st century of the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 forcing pathways.
A 21st century northward tropical precipitation shift caused by future anthropogenic aerosol reductions
The tropical rain belt is a narrow band of clouds near the equator, where the most intense rainfall on the planet occurs. On seasonal timescales, the rain moves across the equator following the Sun,
Anthropogenic sulfate aerosol and the southward shift of tropical precipitation in the late 20th century
[1] In this paper, we demonstrate a global scale southward shift of the tropical rain belt during the latter half of the 20th century in observations and global climate models (GCMs). In rain gauge
Southward movement of the Pacific intertropical convergence zone AD 1400-1850
Tropical rainfall patterns control the subsistence lifestyle of more than one billion people. Seasonal changes in these rainfall patterns are associated with changes in the position of the
Regional energy budget control of the intertropical convergence zone and application to mid-Holocene rainfall
Shifts in the latitude of the intertropical convergence zone—a region of intense tropical rainfall—have often been explained through changes in the atmospheric energy budget, specifically through
Current and Future Variations of the Monsoons of the Americas in a Warming Climate
Purpose of ReviewUnderstanding the details of the impact of global warming on the North and South America monsoons is of key importance for the well-being of a great number of inhabitants of the