Young People's Burden: Requirement of Negative CO2 Emissions

  title={Young People's Burden: Requirement of Negative CO2 Emissions},
  author={James E. Hansen and Makiko Sato and Pushker A. Kharecha and Karina von Schuckmann and David J. Beerling and Junji Cao and Shaun A. Marcott and Val{\'e}rie Masson‐Delmotte and Michael J. Prather and Eelco J. Rohling and Jeremy D. Shakun and Pete Smith},
  journal={Earth System Dynamics Discussions},
Abstract. Global temperature is a fundamental climate metric highly correlated with sea level, which implies that keeping shorelines near their present location requires keeping global temperature within or close to its preindustrial Holocene range. However, global temperature excluding short-term variability now exceeds +1 °C relative to the 1880–1920 mean and annual 2016 global temperature was almost +1.3 °C. We show that global temperature has risen well out of the Holocene range and Earth… 

Current rapid global temperature rise linked to falling SO2 emissions

Abstract. It is widely held that global temperature variations on time scales of a decade or less are primarily caused by internal climate variability, with smaller contributions from changes in

How Should a Global Carbon Budget be Estimated?

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the authority for estimating a carbon budget for keeping to the Paris Agreement’s 1.5—2°C target for limiting global warming, has indicated a

Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go?

Abstract. Human-induced atmospheric composition changes cause a radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere which is driving global warming. This Earth energy imbalance (EEI) is the most

Predictive Connection for 2100 between Atmospheric Carbon, Global Warming and Ocean Height Based on Climate History

  • T. Valone
  • Environmental Science
    International Journal of Environment and Climate Change
  • 2019
Many recent climate panels and committees have predicted a one and a half (1.5°C) to two degrees (2°C) Celsius as an achievable global limit to climate change [1]. Instead, this review has found that

A low climate threshold for south Greenland Ice Sheet demise during the Late Pleistocene

Using high-resolution multiproxy surface ocean climate records off southern Greenland, it is shown that the previous 4 interglacials over the last ∼450 ka all reached warmer than present climate conditions and exceeded the modeled temperature threshold for GIS collapse but by different magnitudes and durations.

Regional climate change and national responsibilities

Global warming over the past several decades is now large enough that regional climate change is emerging above the noise of natural variability, especially in the summer at middle latitudes and

The Sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to a Changing Climate: Past, Present, and Future

The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is out of equilibrium with the current anthropogenic‐enhanced climate forcing. Paleoenvironmental records and ice sheet models reveal that the AIS has been tightly

Implementing the Paris Climate Agreement: Risks and Opportunities for Sustainable Land Use

  • E. Fee
  • Environmental Science
    International Yearbook of Soil Law and Policy 2018
  • 2019
The global objective of limiting global warming to well below 2 °C and to pursue a 1.5 °C limit was set in the Paris Climate Agreement. To accomplish this, the Paris Agreement sets a further global

Meeting climate targets by direct CO2 injections: what price would the ocean have to pay?

Abstract. We investigate the climate mitigation potential and collateral effects of direct injections of captured CO2 into the deep ocean as a possible means to close the gap between an intermediate



Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide

Burning all fossil fuels would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

Geobiological constraints on Earth system sensitivity to CO2 during the Cretaceous and Cenozoic

Earth system climate sensitivity (ESS) is the long‐term (>103 year) response of global surface temperature to doubled CO2 that integrates fast and slow climate feedbacks. ESS has energy policy

Climate change and trace gases

Only intense simultaneous efforts to slow CO2 emissions and reduce non-CO2 forcings can keep climate within or near the range of the past million years.

Earth system sensitivity inferred from Pliocene modelling and data

Quantifying the equilibrium response of global temperatures to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations is one of the cornerstones of climate research. Components of the Earth’s

Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling

The results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling, and the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.

The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming

The future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale is estimated and the saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet, causing a sea- level rise of approximately 2.3 m °C−1 within the next 2,000 y.

Estimating Changes in Global Temperature since the Preindustrial Period

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process agreed in Paris to limit global surface temperature rise to “well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.” But what period is

Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?

Paleoclimate data show that climate sensitivity is ~3 deg-C for doubled CO2, including only fast feedback processes. Equilibrium sensitivity, including slower surface albedo feedbacks, is ~6 deg-C

Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise

A model coupling ice sheet and climate dynamics—including previously underappreciated processes linking atmospheric warming with hydrofracturing of buttressing ice shelves and structural collapse of marine-terminating ice cliffs—is calibrated against Pliocene and Last Interglacial sea-level estimates and applied to future greenhouse gas emission scenarios.