Working Papers in Economics and Statistics On the determinants of currency crises : The role of model uncertainty

@inproceedings{Cuaresma2008WorkingPI,
  title={Working Papers in Economics and Statistics On the determinants of currency crises : The role of model uncertainty},
  author={Jes{\'u}s Crespo Cuaresma and Tomas Slacik},
  year={2008}
}
We tackle explicitly the issue of model uncertainty in the framework of binary variable models of currency crises. Using Bayesian model averaging techniques, we assess the robustness of the explanatory variables proposed in the recent literature for both static and dynamic models. Our results indicate that the variables belonging to the set of macroeconomic fundamentals proposed by the literature are very fragile determinants of the occurrence of currency crises. The results improve if the… CONTINUE READING

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