Working Paper Series What Do Consumers Believe about Future Gasoline Prices ?

@inproceedings{Anderson2010WorkingPS,
  title={Working Paper Series What Do Consumers Believe about Future Gasoline Prices ?},
  author={Soren Tyler Anderson and Ryan P. Kellogg and James M. Sallee},
  year={2010}
}
Researchers estimating the demand for energy-using durable goods must specify consumers' beliefs about future energy prices. Policy-relevant inference hinges on this specification, yet there is little direct evidence on the nature of consumer beliefs. We provide such evidence by analyzing two decades of data on gasoline price expectations from the Michigan Survey of Consumers. We find that average consumer beliefs are indistinguishable from a no-change forecast. This finding has important… CONTINUE READING
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