Wisdom of crowds: much ado about nothing

  title={Wisdom of crowds: much ado about nothing},
  author={Sandro M. Reia and Jos{\'e} Fernando Fontanari},
  journal={Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment},
The puzzling idea that the combination of independent estimates of the magnitude of a quantity results in a very accurate prediction, which is superior to any or, at least, to most of the individual estimates is known as the wisdom of crowds. Here we use the federal reserve bank of Philadelphia’s survey of professional forecasters database to confront the statistical and psychophysical explanations of this phenomenon. Overall we find that the data do not support any of the proposed explanations… 
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