Wind Power Density Forecasting Using Ensemble Predictions and Time Series Models

  title={Wind Power Density Forecasting Using Ensemble Predictions and Time Series Models},
  author={J. W. Taylor and P. E. McSharry and Roberto Buizza},
  journal={IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion},
Wind power is an increasingly used form of renewable energy. The uncertainty in wind generation is very large due to the inherent variability in wind speed, and this needs to be understood by operators of power systems and wind farms. To assist with the management of this risk, this paper investigates methods for predicting the probability density function of generated wind power from one to ten days ahead at five U.K. wind farm locations. These density forecasts provide a description of the… CONTINUE READING
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