Highly Influenced

- Published 2002

Deterministic population forecasts do not give an appropriate indication of forecast uncertainty. Forecasts should be probabilistic, so that their expected accuracy can be assessed. We review three main methods to compute probabilistic forecasts, namely time series extrapolation, analysis of historical forecast errors, and expert judgement. We illustrate… CONTINUE READING

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Highly Influential

Highly Influential

Highly Influential

Highly Influential

Highly Influential

Highly Influential

Highly Influential

Highly Influential

Highly Influential

Highly Influential

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