Why it has become more difficult to predict Nobel Prize winners: a bibliometric analysis of nominees and winners of the chemistry and physics prizes (1901–2007)

  title={Why it has become more difficult to predict Nobel Prize winners: a bibliometric analysis of nominees and winners of the chemistry and physics prizes (1901–2007)},
  author={Yves Gingras and Matthew L. Wallace},
We propose a comprehensive bibliometric study of the profile of Nobel Prize winners in chemistry and physics from 1901 to 2007, based on citation data available over the same period. The data allows us to observe the evolution of the profiles of winners in the years leading up to—and following—nominations and awarding of the Nobel Prize. The degree centrality and citation rankings in these fields confirm that the Prize is awarded at the peak of the winners’ citation history, despite a brief… 
Winners and runners-up alike?—a comparison between awardees and special mention recipients of the most reputable science award in Colombia via a composite citation indicator
This study examines the bibliometric features of individual researcher profiles of those participants who received a special mention in Colombia's most prestigious prize in the sciences: the Alejandro Ángel Escobar Prize (AAEP).
Not just nickel-and-dime: An analysis of journal articles winning Ig Nobel prize during 2011–2020
Ig Nobel prize is a satirical award given to achievements that are unusual, imaginative, and frequently produced in the form of journal articles. It was largely unknown how these award-winning
At what institutions did Nobel laureates do their prize-winning work? An analysis of biographical information on Nobel laureates from 1994 to 2014
This study examined the institutions (and countries) the Nobel laureates of the three disciplines chemistry, physics and physiology/medicine were affiliated with (from 1994 to 2014) when they did the decisive research work and showed that the USA dominated as a country.
The Colombian scientific elite—Science mapping and a comparison with Nobel Prize laureates using a composite citation indicator
A well-established agenda on the research output, impact, and structure of global scientific elites such as Nobel Prize laureates has generated interest in the scientific elites from developing
How Winning an International Scientific Award Affects Publishing Behavior of Laureates: the Case of Derek de Solla Price Medal in Scientometrics
This research aims to investigate the effect of the Derek de Solla Price memorial award reception on publishing behavior of medalists through comparing their research performance in 5 years before
Identifying prize-winning scientists by a competition-aware ranking
Scientific elite revisited: patterns of productivity, collaboration, authorship and impact
It is found that, although Nobel laureates were energetic producers from the outset, producing works that garner unusually high impact, their careers before winning the prize follow relatively similar patterns to those of ordinary scientists, being characterized by hot streaks and increasing reliance on collaborations.
A Simple Index for the High-Citation Tail of Citation Distribution to Quantify Research Performance in Countries and Institutions
The x-index, which is calculated from the number of national articles in the top 1% and 0.1% ofhighly cited papers and has a subtractive term to discount highly cited papers that are not scientific breakthroughs, is a simple and precise indicator for high research performance.
Relation of early career performance and recognition to the probability of winning the Nobel Prize in economics
Three analyses provide strong support for the notion that winning the JBCM is related to receiving the Nobel Prize, the award of which is also correlated with early career performance success as measured by number of publications and citations.
Evolution of three Nobel Prize themes and a Nobel snub theme in chemistry: a bibliometric study with focus on international collaboration
For all four themes, especially for Brunauer–Emmett–Teller equation, the publication volumes increase considerably from the earliest period to the later periods, and the international collaboration rate shows an increasing trend for each theme.


Are the 1979 Prizewinners of Nobel Class?
  • Education
  • 1998
Part of the process of scientific discovery is linguistic. It is not only necessary for scientists to observe and discover phenomena, but also to name them. Thus, the coining of new terms
Of Nobel class: A citation perspective on high impact research authors
If quantitative rankings of highly cited research authors confirm Nobel prize awards, a simple, quantitative, and objective algorithm based on citation data can effectively corroborate — and even forecast — a complex, qualitative, and subjective selection process based on human judgement.
Mapping the Changing Centrality of Physicists (1900-1944)
This paper contributes to historical bibliometrics in proposing to apply social networks methodology and the concept of centrality to co-citation networks. Using the case of physics for the period
A Method of Predicting Nobel Prizewinners in Chemistry
A study was carried out to test Garfield's claim that citation counting can be used to predict Nobel prizewinners, and found that receipt of the Nobel Prize is indeed correlated with citation counts, but that it is more strongly correlated with the number of papers co- authored in which the senior author's name is not the first in the list of authors.
The Nobel prize in physics - regularities and tendencies
It is shown that the time-interval between the discovery and its recognition can be approximately described by a lognormal distribution.
The Beginnings of the Nobel Institution. The Science Prizes, 1901-1915
Acknowledgments Introduction 1. Precursors to the Nobel prizes in the sciences 2. Developments in Swedish and international science having a bearing on the Nobel institution 3. Implementing the will
Defining physics: The Nobel Prize selection process, 1901–1937
The great prestige of the Nobel Prizes has come virtually to define physics in the public mind. An examination of the nominations and the selections in the first 37 years of Nobel awards shows that
Nobel laureates: Their publication productivity, collaboration and authorship status
The review of the conceptual or philosophical foundations for the measurement of science offers an in-depth examination, resulting in the correlation of these foundations with the metrics used to measure science and its outcomes.
Simply a Matter of Chemistry? The Nobel Prize for 1920
  • D. Barkan
  • Education
    Perspectives on Science
  • 1994
When, how, and by whom scientific knowledge is recognized with highest honors is illustrated by this avowedly atypical episode involving the Nobel Prize awarded to Walther Nernst for 1920. Mine is
Henry Dale's Nobel Prize Winning `Discovery'
This paper explores the process by which Henry Dale became recognized as the discoverrer of the chemical transmission ofnerve impulses and compares the explanatorypower of the story of individual creativity with a story that highlights the interaction between a scientist and his environment.