Why Don't We Learn to Accurately Forecast Feelings? How Misremembering Our Predictions Blinds Us to Past Forecasting Errors

@article{Meyvis2010WhyDW,
  title={Why Don't We Learn to Accurately Forecast Feelings? How Misremembering Our Predictions Blinds Us to Past Forecasting Errors},
  author={T. Meyvis and R. Ratner and Jonathan Levav},
  journal={Behavioral & Experimental Finance (Editor's Choice) eJournal},
  year={2010}
}
  • T. Meyvis, R. Ratner, Jonathan Levav
  • Published 2010
  • Psychology, Medicine
  • Behavioral & Experimental Finance (Editor's Choice) eJournal
  • Why do affective forecasting errors persist in the face of repeated disconfirming evidence? Five studies demonstrate that people misremember their forecasts as consistent with their experience and thus fail to perceive the extent of their forecasting error. As a result, people do not learn from past forecasting errors and fail to adjust subsequent forecasts. In the context of a Super Bowl loss (Study 1), a presidential election (Studies 2 and 3), an important purchase (Study 4), and the… CONTINUE READING

    Topics from this paper.

    Motivated underpinnings of the impact bias in affective forecasts.
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    Feelings of the future
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