Why Don't We Learn to Accurately Forecast Feelings? How Misremembering Our Predictions Blinds Us to Past Forecasting Errors

@article{Meyvis2010WhyDW,
  title={Why Don't We Learn to Accurately Forecast Feelings? How Misremembering Our Predictions Blinds Us to Past Forecasting Errors},
  author={Tom Meyvis and Rebecca K. Ratner and Jonathan Levav},
  journal={Microeconomic Theory eJournal},
  year={2010}
}
Why do affective forecasting errors persist in the face of repeated disconfirming evidence? Five studies demonstrate that people misremember their forecasts as consistent with their experience and thus fail to perceive the extent of their forecasting error. As a result, people do not learn from past forecasting errors and fail to adjust subsequent forecasts. In the context of a Super Bowl loss (Study 1), a presidential election (Studies 2 and 3), an important purchase (Study 4), and the… 
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TLDR
The outcome specification values of an event, such as its duration, magnitude, probability, and psychological distance, can be used to predict the direction of affective forecasting errors: whether affective forecasters will overestimate or underestimate its hedonic impact.
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In spite of the experiential advantage, people consume material items in the pursuit of happiness. We conducted three studies to determine if people commit forecasting errors when deciding between
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