Why 1914 but Not Before? A Comparative Study of the July Crisis and Its Precursors

  title={Why 1914 but Not Before? A Comparative Study of the July Crisis and Its Precursors},
  author={Jack S. Levy and William Mulligan},
  journal={Security Studies},
  pages={213 - 244}
Abstract Why did the July 1914 crisis—but not crises in 1905, 1908–9, 1911, and 1912–13—escalate to great-power war despite occurring under similar international and domestic conditions? Explanations based on underlying and slowly changing structural, social, or cultural variables cannot answer this question. Examining three Balkan crises of 1912–13 and the July Crisis, we refine realist explanations based on power, alliances, and reputational interests by incorporating the impact of changing… 


Influence, Power, and the Policy Process: The Case of Franz Ferdinand, 1906–1914 *
The death of Franz Ferdinand at Sarajevo galvanized the Habsburg monarchy into its most fateful decision: the initiation of local war against Serbia. His demise, among other things, ensured Berlin's
  • T. Otte
  • History
    The Historical Journal
  • 2013
ABSTRACT Based on hitherto unused archival material, this article reconstructs the genesis of a clandestine mission to Germany by Sir Edward Grey's private secretary, Sir William Tyrrell, planned for
The World Economy and the Great War
Abstract Since the 1990s a group of scholars connected to the National Bureau of Economic Research convincingly presented the nineteenth century as the first great age of global growth and
Anticipating Total War: Dreams and Nightmares: German Military Leadership and the Images of Future Warfare, 1871-1914
a short-war illusion? In August 1914 the generals of continental Europe's great powers led their armies into huge offensives in order to win a decisive strategic advantage over their opponents with
Perception and misperception in international politics
This study of perception and misperception in foreign policy was a landmark in the application of cognitive psychology to political decision making. The New York Times called it, in an article
The Arming of Europe and the Making of the First World War
This is a study of how land-based military power influenced international affairs during the series of diplomatic crises that led up to World War I. Instead of emphasizing the naval arms race, the
Counterfactuals, Causal Inference, and Historical Analysis
I focus primarily on the utility of counterfactual analysis for helping to validate causal inferences in historical analysis. How can we use what did not happen but which easily could have happened
“公共财政”和“Public Finance”辨析
The revision of the Rating Outlook to Stable from Negative reflects Fitch’s belief that the city may be required by the EPA to move to secondary treatment at its two largest treatment plants at some
Alliances, 1815–1945: Weapons of Power and Tools of Management
Though the term “alliance” has often been used loosely to mean simply “friendship” or “working partnership,”1 jurists and theorists have long insisted on a narrower definition, according to which an
The Invisible Hand of Peace: Capitalism, the War Machine, and International Relations Theory
1. American grand strategy and the liberal peace 2. Liberal international relations theory on war 3. Releasing the invisible hand 4. Liberal economic institutions and peace in the twentieth century