When to expect a coup d’état? An extreme bounds analysis of coup determinants

@article{Gassebner2016WhenTE,
  title={When to expect a coup d’{\'e}tat? An extreme bounds analysis of coup determinants},
  author={Martin Gassebner and Jerg Gutmann and Stefan Voigt},
  journal={Public Choice},
  year={2016},
  volume={169},
  pages={293-313}
}
Over the last several decades, both economists and political scientists have shown interest in coups d’état. Numerous studies have been dedicated to understanding the causes of coups. However, model uncertainty still looms large. About one hundred potential determinants of coups have been proposed, but no consensus has emerged on an established baseline model for analyzing coups. We address this problem by testing the sensitivity of inferences to over three million model permutations in an… 
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