When Can History Be Our Guide ? The Pitfalls of Counterfactual Inference 1

Abstract

Inferences about counterfactuals are essential for prediction, answering ‘‘what if ’’ questions, and estimating causal effects. However, when the counterfactuals posed are too far from the data at hand, conclusions drawn from well-specified statistical analyses become based on speculation and convenient but indefensible model assumptions rather than… (More)

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