What the reproductive number R0 can and cannot tell us about COVID-19 dynamics

@article{Shaw2021WhatTR,
  title={What the reproductive number R0 can and cannot tell us about COVID-19 dynamics},
  author={Clara L. Shaw and David A. Kennedy},
  journal={Theoretical Population Biology},
  year={2021},
  volume={137},
  pages={2 - 9}
}
The reproductive number R (or R 0 , the initial reproductive number in an immune-naïve population) has long been successfully used to predict the likelihood of pathogen invasion, to gauge… Expand

Figures from this paper

A comprehensive estimation of country-level basic reproduction numbers R0 for COVID-19: Regime regression can automatically estimate the end of the exponential phase in epidemic data
TLDR
An exploratory analysis supports tentatively and tardily, but independently of age-stratified COVID-19 data, the low priority given to vaccinating younger age groups, and supports the judicious reopening of schools. Expand
Estimating the impact of interventions against COVID-19: from lockdown to vaccination
TLDR
It is concluded that, short of a permanent lockdown, vaccination is by far the most effective way to suppress and ultimately control the spread of COVID-19. Expand
Nonlinear Dynamics of the Introduction of a New SARS-CoV-2 Variant with Different Infectiousness
TLDR
It is proved that if the basic reproduction number is less than unity, the infection-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and the prevalence of the preexistent variant would decrease and eventually disappear. Expand
A Review of Matrix SIR Arino Epidemic Models
TLDR
This work proposes to use the name SIR-PH, due to a simple probabilistic interpretation as SIR models where the exponential infection time has been replaced by a PH-type distribution, and provides a self-contained reference of related formulas for (x,y,z) models. Expand
Modeling the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 under non-pharmaceutical interventions
TLDR
Evo-epidemiological models used to examine the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions and testing on two evolutionary trajectories for SARS-CoV-2 show that when stronger measures are taken, selection may act to reduce virulence, and the timely application of NPIs could significantly affect the competition between viral strains, favoring reduced virulence. Expand
Detection, not mortality, constrains the evolution of virulence
TLDR
It is shown that costs of mortality are too small to plausibly constrain the evolution of disease severity except in systems where survival is rare, and it is proposed that disease severity can be much more readily constrained by a cost of behavioral change due to the detection of infection. Expand
Testing and Isolation Efficacy: Insights from a Simple Epidemic Model
TLDR
This research presents a novel and scalable approach that allows for real-time decision-making in the context of epidemiological modelling and analysis of infectious disease outbreaks. Expand

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 239 REFERENCES
Estimating the reproductive number R0 of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States and eight European countries and implications for vaccination
TLDR
It is found that for such rapid epidemic growth, high levels of intervention efforts are necessary, no matter the goal is mitigation or containment, and how vaccination schedules depend on R 0, the duration of protective immunity to SARS-CoV-2, and other factors can significantly affect vaccination schedules are analyzed. Expand
Estimating the reproductive number R0 of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States and eight European countries and implications for vaccination
TLDR
A mathematical model is developed and fit to case and death count data collected from the United States and eight European countries during the early epidemic period before broad control measures were implemented, and shows that individual-level heterogeneity in vaccine induced immunity can significantly affect vaccination schedules. Expand
Beyond R0: Heterogeneity in secondary infections and probabilistic epidemic forecasting
TLDR
This work reformulate and extend a classic result from random network theory that relies on contact tracing data to simultaneously determine the first moment (R0) and the higher moments (representing the heterogeneity) in the distribution of secondary infections, and shows the different ways this framework can be implemented in the data-scarce reality of emerging pathogens. Expand
Estimating the Number of SARS-CoV-2 Infections and the Impact of Mitigation Policies in the United States
Knowledge of the number of individuals who have been infected with the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and the extent to which attempts for mitigation by executive order have been effective at limitingExpand
Beyond R0: heterogeneity in secondary infections and probabilistic epidemic forecasting
TLDR
This work reformulate and extend a classic result from random network theory to forecast the size of an epidemic using estimates of the distribution of secondary infections, leveraging both its average R0 and the underlying heterogeneity. Expand
Reconciling early-outbreak estimates of the basic reproductive number and its uncertainty: framework and applications to the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak
TLDR
This work presents a statistical framework for comparing and combining different estimates of R0 across a wide range of models by decomposing the basic reproductive number into three key quantities: the exponential growth rate, the mean generation interval and the generation-interval dispersion. Expand
The Failure of R 0
TLDR
It is shown that the same model of malaria gives many different values of R 0, depending on the method used, with the sole common property that they have a threshold at 1. Expand
COVID-19 herd immunity in the Brazilian Amazon
TLDR
Although non-pharmaceutical interventions, plus a change in population behavior, may have helped to limit SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Manaus, the unusually high infection rate suggests that herd immunity played a significant role in determining the size of the epidemic. Expand
Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and implementation of population-wide interventions in Italy
TLDR
It is demonstrated that restrictive social-distancing measures will need to be combined with widespread testing and contact tracing to end the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Expand
Estimating the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections and the impact of social distancing in the United States
TLDR
Estimates of the extent to which confirmed cases in the United States undercount the true number of infections are presented, and how effective social distancing measures have been at mitigating or suppressing the virus are analyzed. Expand
...
1
2
3
4
5
...