What Actually Wins Soccer Matches : Prediction of the 2011-2012 Premier League for Fun and Profit

@inproceedings{Snyder2013WhatAW,
  title={What Actually Wins Soccer Matches : Prediction of the 2011-2012 Premier League for Fun and Profit},
  author={Jeffrey Snyder},
  year={2013}
}
Sports analytics is a fascinating problem area in which to apply statistical learning techniques. This thesis brings new data to bear on the problem of predicting the outcome of a soccer match. We use frequency counts of in-game events, sourced from the Manchester City Analytics program, to predict the 380 matches of the 2011-2012 Premier League season. We generate prediction models with multinomial regression and rigorously test them with betting simulations. An extensive review of prior… CONTINUE READING
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