Was the 2000 Presidential Election Predictable?

  title={Was the 2000 Presidential Election Predictable?},
  author={Robert S. Erikson and Joseph Bafumi and Bret Wilson},
  journal={PS: Political Science \& Politics},
  pages={815 - 819}
In late August 2000, at APSA's Annual Meeting, a panel of political scientists offered forecasts for the 2000 presidential election. Although they differed in particulars, most of the forecasters' models incorporated a measure of economic growth plus the president's approval rating. Because the economy was prospering and President Clinton enjoyed phenomenal approval numbers for the eighth year of office, the consensus prediction was a Democratic (Gore) victory by upwards of 6 percentage points… 

Forecasts of the 2012 US Presidential Election based on Candidates’ Perceived Competence in Handling the Most Important Issue*

The Big-Issue Model predicts election outcomes based on voters’ perceptions of candidates’ ability to handle the most important issue. It provided accurate forecasts of the 2012 US presidential

The Influence of Federal Spending on Presidential Elections

Do voters reward presidents for increased federal spending in their local constituencies? Previous research on the electoral consequences of federal spending has focused almost exclusively on

Presidential Particularism and Divide-the-Dollar Politics

When influencing the allocation of federal dollars across the country, do presidents strictly pursue maximally efficient outcomes, or do they systematically target dollars to politically influential

Presidential Election Polls in 2000: A Study in Dynamics

The study of voters and elections has taught us a lot about individuals' vote choices and election outcomes themselves. We know that voters behave in fairly understandable ways on election day (see,

The Particularistic President

As the holders of the only office elected by the entire nation, presidents have long claimed to be sole stewards of the interests of all Americans. Scholars have largely agreed, positing the

Understanding Elections: Measuring Electoral Determinants with Electronic Prediction Markets

While significant research has demonstrated that prediction markets are highly accurate indicators of the real-time status of an election, few studies within political economics or political science

Presidential Rhetoric and Economic Leadership

The two most important areas of leadership for any president are the economy and foreign policy. Presidential leadership in these two areas is mutually dependent, because foreign policy actions can



The Referendum that Didn't Happen: The Forecasts of the 2000 Presidential Election

On August 29, 70 days before the election and more than 100 days before anyone would know who would be the next president, my trial-heat and economy model for forecasting presidential elections

Presidential Popularity and Presidential Elections: An Update and Extension

THIS paper updates and extends findings reported by Sigelman (1979), who discovered, contrary to earlier indications (Mueller, 1973), that the outcomes of presidential elections can be predicted with

On Forecasting the Presidential Vote

“He's breaking every political scientist's heart.” Mark Shields, commenting on the Gore campaign for The Newshour with Jim Lehrer on election eve, November 6, 2000 It did not look good for Gore

Forecasting with Mixed Economic Signals: A Cautionary Tale

In every respect, the 2000 election defied what had become the conventional wisdom about American presidential elections—that the electorate rewards the incumbent administration for good economic

Before the vote : forecasting American national elections

PART ONE: INTRODUCTION Forecasting US National Elections - James E Campbell and James C Garand PART TWO: FORECASTS OF THE 1996 AMERICAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS Polls and Votes - James E Campbell The

Presidential Vote Models: A Recount

Was it Al Gore's election to lose? Most political scientists, includeing us, believed that peace and a booming economy would give Gore a significant advantage in the 2000 presidential race. The

Primary Colors: A Mixed Blessing for Al Gore

  • H. Norpoth
  • History
    PS: Political Science & Politics
  • 2001
Having nailed down his party's presidential nomination with an early and decisive victory in the primaries, Al Gore will go on to defeat George W. Bush in the general election by a comfortable

Specification Uncertainty and Model Averaging

Theory: Data analysts sometimes report (and more often produce) results from many alternative models with different explanatory variables, functional forms, observations, or exogeneity assumptions.

Presidential Popularityand Presidential Elections