• Corpus ID: 239996989


  author={Niall D. Ferguson},
B the siege of Troy was proving difficult, the frustrated Argives went down to their ships to sail for home. According to Homer, “A homecoming beyond fate might have been accomplished, had not Hera spoken a word to Athene.” The grey-eyed Athena sped down the peak of Olympus and instructed Odysseus to prevent the departure of the Argives, which he did.1 The drama of the Iliad rests on a counterfactual, as do many other great works of literature. Counterfactuals are also taken seriously in the… 

The Psychology of Counterfactual Thinking

Abstract : »Die Psychologie kontrafaktischen Denkens« . Counterfactual think-ing refers to mental constructions of alternatives to past events. In this over-view of the psychological basis of

Comparative Political Studies Giovanni Capoccia and Daniel Ziblatt Agenda for Europe and Beyond The Historical Turn in Democratization Studies : A New Research

This article lays the theoretical and methodological foundations of a new historically minded approach to the comparative study of democratization, centered on the analysis of the creation,

Effect of counterfactual and factual thinking on causal judgements

The significance of counterfactual thinking in the causal judgement process has been emphasized for nearly two decades, yet no previous research has directly compared the relative effect of thinking

Did Illegal Overseas Absentee Ballots Decide the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election?

Although not widely known until much later, Al Gore received 202 more votes than George W. Bush on election day in Florida. George W. Bush is president because he overcame his election day deficit

Cognitive neuroscience of human counterfactual reasoning

It is proposed that counterfactual thinking depends on an integrative network of systems for affective processing, mental simulation, and cognitive control that together enable adaptive behavior and goal-directed decision making and make recommendations for the study ofcounterfactual inference in health, aging, and disease.

The Historical Turn in Democratization Studies: A New Research Agenda for Europe and Beyond

This article lays the theoretical and methodological foundations of a new historically minded approach to the comparative study of democratization, centered on the analysis of the creation,

A Unifying Framework for Causal Analysis in Set-Theoretic Multimethod Research

It is argued that causal inference via counterfactuals on the level of single cases integrates QCA and process tracing and assigns proper and equally valuable roles to both methods.

Assessing the Democratic Quality of Deliberation in International Governance: Criteria and Research Strategies

In the literature on international governance it is often claimed that deliberation can enhance the rationality and legitimacy of political rule-making beyond the nation state. It is unclear,

What Are We Actually Tracing? Process Tracing and the Benefits of Conceptualizing Causal Mechanisms as Systems

take us in establishing counterfactual claims? If process tracing hinges on knowledge of invariant mechanistic processes, from where can we draw these prior beliefs? Can the tracing of entities and

Counterfactual thinking: an fMRI study on changing the past for a better future.

Results confirm that episodic and counterfactual thinking share a common brain network, involving a core memory network and prefrontal areas that might be related to mentalizing and performance monitoring and additionally activates the bilateral inferior parietal lobe and posterior medial frontal cortex.



The Illusion of Limited War: Chancellor Bethmann Hollweg's Calculated Risk, July 1914

The responsibility for the outbreak of World War I weighed heavily upon Imperial Germany's fifth Chancellor, Theobald von Bethmann Hollweg. “This war torments me,” he confessed to the Liberal Conrad

Influence, Power, and the Policy Process: The Case of Franz Ferdinand, 1906–1914

The death of Franz Ferdinand at Sarajevo galvanized the Habsburg monarchy into its most fateful decision: the initiation of local war against Serbia. His demise, among other things, ensured Berlin's

Counterfactuals and hypothesis testing in political science

Scholars in comparative politics and international relations routinely evaluate causal hypotheses by referring to counterfactual cases where a hypothesized causal factor is supposed to have been

War Guilt 1914 Reconsidered: A Balance of New Research

The controversy on the origin of the First World War has not yet come to an end. In its first phase between the two wars it centred on the war-guilt clause of the Treaty of Versailles, as it was

Domestic Factors in German Foreign Policy before 1914

Gordon Craig recently deplored the fact that political history, and particularly diplomatic history, no longer attracts the attention of historians or the public as much as has been the case up to

Germany and the Origins of the First World War

  • D. Kaiser
  • History
    The Journal of Modern History
  • 1983
Twenty-two years ago Fritz Fischer's Griff nach der Weltmacht (Diusseldorf, 1961) reopened the question of Germany's responsibility for the First World War. Germany, Fischer argued, had purposely

THE SECOND CYBERNETICS Deviation-Amplifying Mutual Causal Processes

Since its inception, cybernetics was more or less identified as a science of self-regulating and equilibrating systems, but the deviation-amplifying systems have not been given as much investment of time and energy by the mathematical scientists, and understanding and practical application on the part of geneticists, ecologists, politicians and psychotherapists.

Exploring Realpolitik: Probing International Relations Theory With Computer Simulation

Part 1 Realpolitik theory and a model - realpolitik and the balance of power model description. Part 2 Exploring some basic propositions: processes and evolution - a description and analysis system


SEIT Fritz F i s c h e r im Einleitungskapitel seines Werkes „Griff nach der Weltmacht" 1961^) eine von der konventionellen deutschen Betrachtungsweise abweichende Deutung der Reichspolitik in der