# W(h)ither the Drake equation?

@article{Burchell2006WhitherTD, title={W(h)ither the Drake equation?}, author={M. Burchell}, journal={International Journal of Astrobiology}, year={2006}, volume={5}, pages={243 - 250} }

For over 40 years the formalism known as the Drake equation has helped guide speculation about the likelihood of intelligent extraterrestrial life contacting us. Since the equation was formulated there have been significant advances in astronomy and astrophysics, sufficient to merit a review of the significance of the Drake equation. The equation itself is as a series of terms which, when combined, allow an informed discussion of the likelihood of contact with an alien intelligence. However… Expand

#### 44 Citations

A stochastic process approach of the drake equation parameters

- Mathematics, Physics
- International Journal of Astrobiology
- 2012

Abstract The number N of detectable (i.e. communicating) extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy is usually calculated by using the Drake equation. This equation was established in… Expand

Using predictive Bayesian Monte Carlo- Markov Chain methods to provide a probablistic solution for the Drake equation

- Computer Science
- 2019

The result provides a probability curve of the likelihood of life in the universe that includes both uncertainty and potential variability within the result to provide a means to define the probability oflife in the galaxy as well as life within proximity to earth. Expand

A Computational Analysis of Galactic Exploration with Space Probes: Implications for the Fermi Paradox

- Physics
- 2009

Temporal explanations to the Fermi paradox state that the vast scale of the galaxy diminishes the chances of establishing contact with an extraterrestrial technological civilization (ETC) within a… Expand

A Mathematical Model for Evolution and SETI

- Mathematics, Medicine
- Origins of Life and Evolution of Biospheres
- 2011

A statistical generalization of the Drake equation where the factor fl is shown to follow the lognormal probability distribution, and it is shown that the exponential growth of the number of species typical of Darwinian Evolution may be regarded as the geometric locus of the peaks of a one-parameter family of lognormals constrained between the time axis and theonential growth curve. Expand

On the origin and evolution of life in the Galaxy

- Physics
- International Journal of Astrobiology
- 2010

Abstract A simple stochastic model for evolution, based upon the need to pass a sequence of n critical steps is applied to both terrestrial and extraterrestrial origins of life. In the former case,… Expand

Evolution and History in a new “Mathematical SETI” model

- Mathematics
- 2014

Abstract In a recent paper (Maccone, 2011 [15] ) and in a recent book (Maccone, 2012 [17] ), this author proposed a new mathematical model capable of merging SETI and Darwinian Evolution into a… Expand

Astrobiological Complexity with Probabilistic Cellular Automata

- Physics, Medicine
- Origins of Life and Evolution of Biospheres
- 2012

It is argued that probabilistic cellular automata (PCA) represent the best quantitative framework for modeling the astrobiological history of the Milky Way and its Galactic Habitable Zone and how numerical results could offer a cautious rationale for continuation of practical SETI searches is demonstrated. Expand

Evolution of the number of communicative civilizations in the Galaxy: implications on Fermi paradox

- Mathematics
- International Journal of Astrobiology
- 2020

Abstract It has been recently proposed DeVito [(2019) On the meaning of Fermi's paradox. Futures, 389–414] that a minimal number of contacts with alien radio-communicative civilizations could be… Expand

SETI, Evolution and Human History Merged into a Mathematical Model

- Physics
- International Journal of Astrobiology
- 2013

Abstract In this paper we propose a new mathematical model capable of merging Darwinian Evolution, Human History and SETI into a single mathematical scheme: (1) Darwinian Evolution over the last 3.5… Expand

From Drake’s Equation to Cosmobiology in the Timeless Quantum Vacuum

- Physics
- 2020

A model of the frequency of planetary “origin of life”-type events in terms of the fundamental intrinsic properties of a three-dimensional timeless non-local dynamic quantum vacuum is proposed, which… Expand

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