Voting after the Bombings: A Natural Experiment on the Effect of Terrorist Attacks on Democratic Elections

  title={Voting after the Bombings: A Natural Experiment on the Effect of Terrorist Attacks on Democratic Elections},
  author={Jose G Montalvo},
  journal={Review of Economics and Statistics},
  • Jose G Montalvo
  • Published 14 October 2011
  • Political Science
  • Review of Economics and Statistics
Abstract Can terrorist attacks be timed to change the outcome of democratic elections? In this paper, we analyze the electoral impact of the terrorist attacks of March 11, 2004, in Madrid. Studies using individual level postelectoral survey data reach contradictory conclusions. We propose an alternative approach. Since the bombings took place only three days before the 2004 congressional election, we can find a control group of individuals who cast their vote before the terrorist attacks. The… 
Terrorism and Voting Behavior: Evidence from the United States
This article examines the impact of terrorism on voting behavior in the United States. We rely on an exhaustive list of terror attacks over the period 1970–2016 and exploit the inherent randomness of
Terrorism and Voting: The Effect of Rocket Threat on Voting in Israeli Elections
How does the threat of becoming a victim of terrorism affect voting behavior? Localities in southern Israel have been exposed to rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip since 2001. Relying on variation
The electoral impact of the attacks of March 11th in Madrid: explanatory mechanisms
ABSTRACT The main objective of this work is to analyse the mechanisms through which the attacks occurring on March 11th 2004 in Madrid could have influenced citizen’s vote decisions and hence the Terrorism and Voting Behavior: Evidence from the United States
This paper examines the impact of terrorism on voting behavior in the United States. We rely on an exhaustive list of terror attacks over the period 1970-2016 and exploit the inherent randomness of
Using a natural experiment to estimate the electoral consequences of terrorist attacks
It is found that both lethal and nonlethal terrorist attacks significantly increase individuals’ intent to participate in a future democratic election, and the magnitude of this impact is larger when attacks are directed against civilians than when directed against members of the military or the police.
Electoral terms and terrorism
Many terror attacks occur at the beginning of electoral terms. We present a game theoretical model with incomplete information to account for this empirical pattern. Both terrorists and governments
Rockets and votes
  • Yael Elster
  • Economics
    Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
  • 2019
Party leaders and voter responses to political terrorism
In this article, we study the political implications of terrorism rooted in extremist political ideologies. Our data uniquely allow studying the potential role of party leader evaluations on
Rallies around the flag-draped coffins: the electoral effects of security force casualties in terror attacks
  • Resul Umit
  • Political Science
    Political Science Research and Methods
  • 2021
Security forces are one of the main targets of political violence. This paper examines the effect of their casualties on electoral outcomes. Between two general elections in 2015, Turkey


Voting after the bombing: Can terrorist attacks change the outcome of democratic elections?
Economists have recently turned their attention to the effects of terrorism. One much debated effect of terrorist attacks is its impact on the results of democratic elections. We use the electoral
Terror and elections: Lessons from Spain
The 2004 Spanish General Election: In the Shadow of Al Quaeda
The Spanish general election of 2004 was held just three days after the tragic bombing in Madrid by an Islamic terrorist group linked to Al-Qaeda, on 11 March. The incumbent conservative party, the
The effects of surprise political events on quoted firms: the March 2004 election in Spain
In the last days of the electoral campaign for the 2004 general election in Spain, on Thursday March 11th 2004, a series of simultaneous terror attacks caused the death of 191 persons in commuting
The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the
This article investigates the economic eects of conict, using the terrorist conict in the Basque Country as a case study. Our analysis rests on two dierent strategies. First, we use a combination of
The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism
  • R. Pape
  • Political Science
    American Political Science Review
  • 2003
Suicide terrorism is rising around the world, but the most common explanations do not help us understand why. Religious fanaticism does not explain why the world leader in suicide terrorism is the
Naxalite Insurgency and the Economic Benefits of a Unique Robust Security Response
Using the synthetic control method of analysis, we provide the first measurements of the direct economic benefits of a unique robust security response to an insurgency. Of all the states affected by
The Impact of the Mariel Boatlift on the Miami Labor Market
Using data from the Current Population Survey, this paper describes the effect of the Mariel Boatlift of 1980 on the Miami labor market. The Mariel immigrants increased the Miami labor force by 7%,
How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?
Most Difference-in-Difference (DD) papers rely on many years of data and focus on serially correlated outcomes. Yet almost all these papers ignore the bias in the estimated standard errors that
An Illustration of a Pitfall in Estimating the Effects of Aggregate Variables on Micro Unit
Many economic researchers have attempted to measure the effect of aggregate market or public policy variables on micro units by merging aggregate data with micro observations by industry, occupation,