Voter turnout: How much can we explain?

  title={Voter turnout: How much can we explain?},
  author={John G. Matsusaka and Filip Palda},
  journal={Public Choice},
This paper evaluates the ability of common explanatory variables to predict who votes. Logit voting regressions are estimated with more than three dozen explanatory variables using survey and aggregate data for the 1979, 1980, 1984, and 1988 Canadian national elections. We find that the usual demographic variables such as age and education, and contextual variables such as campaign spending have significant effects on the probability of voting, but the models have low R2's and cannot predict… Expand

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