Volcanoes and ENSO over the Past Millennium

  title={Volcanoes and ENSO over the Past Millennium},
  author={Julien Emile‐Geay and Richard Seager and Mark A. Cane and Edward R. Cook and Gerald H. Haug},
  journal={Journal of Climate},
Abstract The controversial claim that El Nino events might be partially caused by radiative forcing due to volcanic aerosols is reassessed. Building on the work of Mann et al., estimates of volcanic forcing over the past millennium and a climate model of intermediate complexity are used to draw a diagram of El Nino likelihood as a function of the intensity of volcanic forcing. It is shown that in the context of this model, only eruptions larger than that of Mt. Pinatubo (1991, peak dimming of… 

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