Verification, Validation, and Confirmation of Numerical Models in the Earth Sciences

@article{Oreskes1994VerificationVA,
  title={Verification, Validation, and Confirmation of Numerical Models in the Earth Sciences},
  author={Naomi Oreskes and Kristin Sharon Shrader-Frechette and K. Belitz},
  journal={Science},
  year={1994},
  volume={263},
  pages={641 - 646}
}
Verification and validation of numerical models of natural systems is impossible. This is because natural systems are never closed and because model results are always nonunique. Models can be confirmed by the demonstration of agreement between observation and prediction, but confirmation is inherently partial. Complete confirmation is logically precluded by the fallacy of affirming the consequent and by incomplete access to natural phenomena. Models can only be evaluated in relative terms, and… Expand

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