Validation of prognostic indices in Egyptian Budd-Chiari syndrome patients: A single-center study

Abstract

AIM To compare predictive ability of Budd-Chiari syndrome (BCS) prognostic indices (PIs) for one-year survival and Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) patency. METHODS This retrospective study enrolled 194 Egyptian patients with primary BCS who presented to the Budd-Chiari Study Group of Ain Shams University Hospital. Calculation of the available PIs was performed using Child-Pugh and model for end-stage liver disease scores, BCS-specific PIs (Clichy, New Clichy and Rotterdam) for all patients, and BCS-TIPS PI only for patients who underwent TIPS. The overall one-year survival rate and the one-year shunt patency rate for TIPS were reported. RESULTS The overall one-year survival rate was 69.6%, and the New Clichy PI revealed the best validity for its prediction at a cut-off value of 3.75, with sensitivity and specificity of 78% and 73.3%, respectively [area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.806]. The one-year survival rate post-TIPS was 89.7%, and the BCS-TIPS score demonstrated validity for its prediction at a cut-off value of 3.92 (sensitivity and specificity were 71.4% and 64.5%, respectively) (AUC = 0.715). Logistic regression analysis revealed that the New Clichy PI (P = 0.030), high serum total bilirubin (P = 0.047) and low albumin (P < 0.001) were independent factors for predicting mortality within one year. The one-year shunt patency rate in TIPS was 80.2%, and none of the PIs exhibited significant validity for its prediction. CONCLUSION The New Clichy score could independently predict the one-year survival in Egyptian BCS patients.

DOI: 10.3748/wjg.v23.i4.629

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@inproceedings{Sakr2017ValidationOP, title={Validation of prognostic indices in Egyptian Budd-Chiari syndrome patients: A single-center study}, author={Mohammad Amin Sakr and Sara M. Abdelhakam and Soheir A Elsayed and Enas H Allam and Amir M Farid and Waleed Abdelmoaty and Azza M . Hassan and Mohamed Kamal Shaker and Mohamed Nabih El-Gharib and Ahmed Eldorry}, booktitle={World journal of gastroenterology}, year={2017} }