Validation of Twitter opinion trends with national polling aggregates: Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump
@article{Bovet2016ValidationOT, title={Validation of Twitter opinion trends with national polling aggregates: Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump}, author={Alexandre Bovet and F. Morone and Hern{\'a}n A. Makse}, journal={Scientific Reports}, year={2016}, volume={8} }
Measuring and forecasting opinion trends from real-time social media is a long-standing goal of big-data analytics. Despite the large amount of work addressing this question, there has been no clear validation of online social media opinion trend with traditional surveys. Here we develop a method to infer the opinion of Twitter users by using a combination of statistical physics of complex networks and machine learning based on hashtags co-occurrence to build an in-domain training set of the…
79 Citations
The role of bot squads in the political propaganda on Twitter
- Computer ScienceCommunications Physics
- 2020
The authors take a complex networks approach to study the Twitter debate around the Italian migrant crisis, finding evidence for "bots squads” amplifying the tweets of a few key political figures.
Supervised Sentiment Analysis of Twitter Handle of President Trump with Data Visualization Technique
- Political Science2020 10th Annual Computing and Communication Workshop and Conference (CCWC)
- 2020
Using cross-correlation analysis, a preliminary causative relationship between POTUS twitter activity and approval rating is found and the findings provide a new perspective on the forces that influences public opinion.
Did State-sponsored Trolls Shape the US Presidential Election Discourse? Quantifying Influence on Twitter
- Computer ScienceArXiv
- 2020
This work quantifies the influence of troll accounts on Twitter by analyzing 152.5 million tweets from 9.9 million users, and provides a global influence ranking of all Twitter accounts and finds that only four troll accounts appear in the top-1000 and only one in thetop-100.
Extracting significant signal of news consumption from social networks: the case of Twitter in Italian political elections
- Computer SciencePalgrave Communications
- 2019
The analysis of the directed network of validated retweets reveals signals of the alliances formed after the elections, highlighting commonalities of interests before the event of the national elections.
Can We Forecast Presidential Election Using Twitter Data? An Integrative Modelling Approach
- Computer ScienceAnn. GIS
- 2021
This study draws on political science prediction models and modifies them in two aspects and uses Twitter sentiment to replace polling data, and transforms traditional political science models from the national level to the county level, the finest spatial level of voting counts.
Predicting Brazilian and U.S. Elections with Machine Learning and Social Media Data
- Computer Science2020 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN)
- 2020
This work proposes a novel approach to training ML models for predicting vote share based on modeling and using social media data gathered from the posts of official candidates’ profiles combined with traditional polls and uses an artificial neural network for prediction.
Topology comparison of Twitter diffusion networks effectively reveals misleading information
- Computer ScienceScientific Reports
- 2020
The results highlight that the communities of users spreading mainstream news, compared to those sharing misleading news, tend to shape diffusion networks with subtle yet systematic differences which might be effectively employed to identify misleading and harmful information.
Design and analysis of tweet-based election models for the 2021 Mexican legislative election
- Computer ScienceArXiv
- 2023
It is demonstrated that analysis of public online data can outperform conventional polling methods, and that political analysis and general forecasting would likely benefit from incorporating such data in the immediate future.
Quantifying the structure of controversial discussions with unsupervised methods: a look into the Twitter climate change conversation
- Environmental ScienceArXiv
- 2022
It is observed that, while the echo chamber structures are consistent throughout the year, most users inside the echo chambers change from one week to the next, suggesting that they are a stable emergent property of the Twittersphere.
Influence of fake news in Twitter during the 2016 US presidential election
- Computer ScienceNature Communications
- 2019
It is found that, while top influencers spreading traditional center and left leaning news largely influence the activity of Clinton supporters, this causality is reversed for the fake news: the activityof Trump supporters influences the dynamics of the top fake news spreaders.
References
SHOWING 1-10 OF 72 REFERENCES
Digital Trace Data in the Study of Public Opinion
- Political Science
- 2016
In this article, we examine the relationship between metrics documenting politics-related Twitter activity with election results and trends in opinion polls. Various studies have proposed the…
Towards Passive Political Opinion Polling using Twitter
- Computer ScienceSMA@BCS-SGAI
- 2013
The automated senti- ment analysis of tweets from UK Members of Parliament (MPs) towards the main political parties is investigated and the volume and sentiment of the tweets from other users are investigated as a proxy for their voting intention and the results are compared against existing poll data.
From Tweets to Polls: Linking Text Sentiment to Public Opinion Time Series
- Computer ScienceICWSM
- 2010
This work connects measures of public opinion measured from polls with sentiment measured from text, and finds that temporal smoothing is a critically important issue to support a suc- cessful model.
Characterizing and modeling an electoral campaign in the context of Twitter: 2011 Spanish Presidential Election as a case study
- Computer ScienceChaos
- 2012
The user activity in the online social network Twitter is analyzed, during the 2011 Spanish Presidential electoral process, and it is found that such activity is correlated with the election results, and a network growth model is developed to reproduce the interactions taking place among politicians.
The Effects of Twitter Sentiment on Stock Price Returns
- Computer SciencePloS one
- 2015
Investigating the relations between a well-known micro-blogging platform Twitter and financial markets shows that sentiment polarity of Twitter peaks implies the direction of cumulative abnormal returns.
Is the Sample Good Enough? Comparing Data from Twitter's Streaming API with Twitter's Firehose
- Computer ScienceICWSM
- 2013
Data collected using Twitter's sampled API service is compared with data collected using the full, albeit costly, Firehose stream that includes every single published tweet to help researchers and practitioners understand the implications of using the Streaming API.
Predicting and Interpolating State‐Level Polls Using Twitter Textual Data
- Business
- 2017
This article combines 1,200 state-level polls during the 2012 presidential campaign with over 100 million state-located political tweets; models the polls as a function of the Twitter text using a new linear regularization feature-selection method; and shows that when properly modeled, the Twitter-based measures track and to some degree predict opinion polls.
Online Human-Bot Interactions: Detection, Estimation, and Characterization
- Computer ScienceICWSM
- 2017
This work presents a framework to detect social bots on Twitter, and describes several subclasses of accounts, including spammers, self promoters, and accounts that post content from connected applications.
Predicting US Primary Elections with Twitter
- Sociology
- 2012
Using social media for political analysis is becoming a common practice, especially during election time. Many researchers and media are trying to use social media to understand the public opinion…
Twitter, Public Opinion, and the 2011 Nigerian Presidential Election
- Economics2013 International Conference on Social Computing
- 2013
It was found that counts of the mentions on Twitter of the two major candidates correlated strongly with polling and election results when compared across the country's geopolitical regions, though the same data over represented two other candidates who did not fare as well in the polls or at the ballot box.