Using the Lee-Carter method to forecast mortality for populations with limited data

@inproceedings{Li2007UsingTL,
  title={Using the Lee-Carter method to forecast mortality for populations with limited data},
  author={Nan Li and Ronald Demos Lee and Shripad Tuljapurkar},
  year={2007}
}
Summary The Lee–Carter method for modeling and forecasting mortality has been shown to work quite well given long time series of data. Here we consider how it can be used when there are few observations at uneven intervals. Assuming that the underlying model is correct and that the mortality index follows a random walk with drift, we find the method can be used with sparse data. The central forecast depends mainly on the first and last observation, and so can be generated with just two… CONTINUE READING
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