Using the Error in Pre-election Polls to Test for the Presence of Pork

@inproceedings{Allen2008UsingTE,
  title={Using the Error in Pre-election Polls to Test for the Presence of Pork},
  author={Jacob Allen and Craig McIntosh},
  year={2008}
}
Polls are used by politicians, voters, and businesspeople alike to form expectations over political outcomes. In an electoral system with ‘pork’ at the national level, local economic prospects will be a direct function of political support. Because every poll comes with its margin of error, we can exploit the error in sub-national polls to test for whether forward-looking investment in the economy adjusts to shocks in local political behavior. The covariance between the strength of this… CONTINUE READING