Using natural frequencies to improve diagnostic inferences

@article{Hoffrage1998UsingNF,
  title={Using natural frequencies to improve diagnostic inferences},
  author={Ulrich Hoffrage and Gerd Gigerenzer},
  journal={Academic Medicine},
  year={1998},
  volume={73},
  pages={538–40}
}
PURPOSE: To test whether physician's diagnostic inferences can be improved by communicating information using natural frequencies instead of probabilities. Whereas probabilities and relative frequencies are normalized with respect to disease base rates, natural frequencies are not normalized. METHOD: The authors asked 48 physicians in Munich and DÃsseldorf to determine the positive predictive values (PPVs) of four diagnostic tests. Information presented in the four problems appeared either as… 
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