Using Prediction Market Data to Illustrate Undergraduate Probability

Abstract

Prediction markets provide a rare setting, where results of mathematical probability theory can be related to events of real-world interest and where theory can be compared to data. The paper discusses two simple mathematical results—the halftime price principle and the serious candidates principle—and corresponding data from baseball and the 2012… (More)
DOI: 10.4169/amer.math.monthly.120.07.583

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Cite this paper

@article{Aldous2013UsingPM, title={Using Prediction Market Data to Illustrate Undergraduate Probability}, author={David J. Aldous}, journal={The American Mathematical Monthly}, year={2013}, volume={120}, pages={583-593} }