Unpacking the Future: A Nudge Toward Wider Subjective Confidence Intervals

@article{Jain2013UnpackingTF,
  title={Unpacking the Future: A Nudge Toward Wider Subjective Confidence Intervals},
  author={Kriti Jain and Kanchan Mukherjee and J. N. Bearden and A. Gaba},
  journal={Manag. Sci.},
  year={2013},
  volume={59},
  pages={1970-1987}
}
Subjective probabilistic judgments in forecasting are inevitable in many real life domains. A common way to obtain such judgments is to assess fractiles or confidence intervals. However, these judgments tend to be systematically overconfident. Further, it has proved particularly difficult to de-bias such forecasts and improve the calibration. This paper proposes a simple process that systematically leads to wider confidence intervals thus reducing overconfidence. With a series of experiments… Expand
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