Corpus ID: 235795102

Unifying the effective reproduction number, incidence, and prevalence under a stochastic age-dependent branching process

@inproceedings{Berah2021UnifyingTE,
  title={Unifying the effective reproduction number, incidence, and prevalence under a stochastic age-dependent branching process},
  author={Tresnia Berah and Thomas A. Mellan and Xenia Miscouridou and Swapnil Mishra and Kris V. Parag and Mikko S. Pakkanen and Samir Bhatt},
  year={2021}
}
Renewal equations are a popular approach used in modelling the number of new infections (incidence) in an outbreak. A unified set of renewal equations where incidence, prevalence and cumulative incidence can all be recovered from the same stochastic process has not been attempted. Here, we derive a set of renewal equations from an age-dependent branching process with a time-varying reproduction number. Our new derivation utilises a measuretheoretic approach and yields a fully self-contained… Expand

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