• Corpus ID: 245986759

Unifying incidence and prevalence under a time-varying general branching process

  title={Unifying incidence and prevalence under a time-varying general branching process},
  author={Mikko S. Pakkanen and Xenia Miscouridou and Charles Whittaker and Tresnia Berah and Swapnil Mishra and Thomas A. Mellan and Samir Bhatt},
Renewal equations are a popular approach used in modelling the number of new infections, i.e., incidence, in an outbreak. We develop a stochastic model of an outbreak based on a time-varying variant of the Crump–Mode–Jagers branching process. This model accommodates a time-varying reproduction number and a time-varying distribution for the generation interval. We then derive renewal-like integral equations for incidence, cumulative incidence and prevalence under this model. We show that the… 

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