Unextractable fossil fuels in a 1.5 °C world.

@article{Welsby2021UnextractableFF,
  title={Unextractable fossil fuels in a 1.5 °C world.},
  author={Daniel Welsby and James Price and Steve Pye and Paul Ekins},
  journal={Nature},
  year={2021},
  volume={597 7875},
  pages={
          230-234
        }
}
Parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement pledged to limit global warming to well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial times1. However, fossil fuels continue to dominate the global energy system and a sharp decline in their use must be realized to keep the temperature increase below 1.5 °C (refs. 2-7). Here we use a global energy systems model8 to assess the amount of fossil fuels that would need to be left in the ground, regionally… 

Existing fossil fuel extraction would warm the world beyond 1.5 °C

The Paris climate goals and the Glasgow Climate Pact require anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to decline to net zero by mid-century. This will require overcoming carbon lock-in throughout

A low-carbon future for The North Sea Basin

Abstract Human emissions of greenhouse gases have caused a predictable rise of 1.2 °C in global temperatures. Over the last 70 years, the rise has occurred at a geologically unprecedented speed and

Current global efforts are insufficient to limit warming to 1.5°C

Description Human activities have caused global temperatures to increase by 1.25°C, and the current emissions trajectory suggests that we will exceed 1.5°C in less than 10 years. Though the growth

Hydrogen: The Future’s Fuel

  • M. Yusuf
  • Environmental Science
    Oriental Journal of Physical Sciences
  • 2022
The exploitation of fossil fuels at a tremendous scale, especially after the industrial revolution in the 18th century, has instigated damage to the environment. The usage of fossil-based fuels

Impact and Challenges of Reducing Petroleum Consumption for Decarbonization

This study aimed to identify the impact of achieving the 1.5 °C target on the petroleum supply chain in Japan, and discuss the feasibility and challenges of decarbonization. First, a national

Fossil-extraction bans are not enough to achieve the Paris agreement but can facilitate it

Given concerns about the ambition and effectiveness of current climate pledges, a case has been made for the integration of demand-side policies such as carbon pricing with supply-side bans on

Responsible Carbon Resource Management through Input-Oriented Cap and Trade (IOCT)

Fossil fuels store primary carbon. When they are combusted, CO2 is released into the atmosphere. The accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere causes the anthropogenic greenhouse gas effect, which has

Europe Beyond Coal - An Economic and Climate Impact Assessment

A Social Exploration of the West Australian Gorgon Gas, Carbon Capture and Storage Project

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) appears to be essential for lowering emissions during the necessary energy transition. However, in Australia, it has not delivered this result, at any useful scale,
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 74 REFERENCES

The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2 °C

TLDR
It is shown that development of resources in the Arctic and any increase in unconventional oil production are incommensurate with efforts to limit average global warming to 2 °C, and policy makers’ instincts to exploit rapidly and completely their territorial fossil fuels are inconsistent with this temperature limit.

Residual fossil CO2 emissions in 1.5–2 °C pathways

The Paris Agreement—which is aimed at holding global warming well below 2 °C while pursuing efforts to limit it below 1.5 °C—has initiated a bottom-up process of iteratively updating nationally

Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively

Committed emissions from existing energy infrastructure jeopardize 1.5 °C climate target

TLDR
A comprehensive assessment of ‘committed’ carbon dioxide emissions—from existing and proposed fossil-fuel-based infrastructure—finds that these emissions may exceed the level required to keep global warming within 1.5 degrees Celsius.

An equitable redistribution of unburnable carbon

TLDR
It is shown that shifting production to low-medium human development regions has limited economic benefits under strong climate policy, and offers limited economic benefit for developing countries given the long timeframe required to effect change, and the wider impact of rising fuel import and energy systems costs.

Limiting fossil fuel production as the next big step in climate policy

Despite the current ambivalence of the United States towards the Paris Agreement, national and local jurisdictions across the globe remain committed, and they are seeking ways to increase the

Fossil fuel supply and climate policy: exploring the road less taken

The combustion of fossil fuels is by far the largest human source of global greenhouse gas emissions, releasing more than 30 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere each year (IPCC

Towards a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty

ABSTRACT A new approach is needed to tackle the climate crisis, in which the long overlooked supply-side of fossil fuels takes centre stage. A crucial aspect of this is the need for international

A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies

Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C describe major transformations in energy supply and ever-rising energy demand. Here, we provide a contrasting perspective by developing a narrative of

Swimming upstream: addressing fossil fuel supply under the UNFCCC

ABSTRACT Reducing fossil fuel supply is necessary to meet the Paris Agreement goal to keep warming ‘well below 2°C’, yet the Agreement is silent on the topic of fossil fuels. This article outlines
...