Corpus ID: 210023530

Understanding the Great Recession Using Machine Learning Algorithms

  title={Understanding the Great Recession Using Machine Learning Algorithms},
  author={R. Nyman and P. Ormerod},
  journal={arXiv: General Economics},
Nyman and Ormerod (2017) show that the machine learning technique of random forests has the potential to give early warning of recessions. Applying the approach to a small set of financial variables and replicating as far as possible a genuine ex ante forecasting situation, over the period since 1990 the accuracy of the four-step ahead predictions is distinctly superior to those actually made by the professional forecasters. Here we extend the analysis by examining the contributions made to the… Expand
3 Citations


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