Corpus ID: 5958328

Understanding the CMIP 3 multi-model ensemble

  title={Understanding the CMIP 3 multi-model ensemble},
  author={James D. Annan and Julia Catherine Hargreaves},
The CMIP3 multi-model ensemble has been widely utilised for climate research and prediction, but the properties and behavior of the ensemble are not yet fully understood. Here we present some investigations into various aspects of the ensemble’s behaviour. In particular, we explain why the multi-model mean is always better than the ensemble members on average, and we also identify the properties of the distribution which control how likely it is to out-perform a single model. Our analyses… Expand
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