Understanding cumulative risk

@article{McCloy2010UnderstandingCR,
  title={Understanding cumulative risk},
  author={Rachel McCloy and Ruth M. J. Byrne and Philip N. Johnson-Laird},
  journal={Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology},
  year={2010},
  volume={63},
  pages={499 - 515}
}
This paper summarizes the theory of simple cumulative risks—for example, the risk of food poisoning from the consumption of a series of portions of tainted food. Problems concerning such risks are extraordinarily difficult for naïve individuals, and the paper explains the reasons for this difficulty. It describes how naïve individuals usually attempt to estimate cumulative risks, and it outlines a computer program that models these methods. This account predicts that estimates can be improved… 
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