Uncertainty in the Context of Highway Appraisal

  title={Uncertainty in the Context of Highway Appraisal},
  author={David J. Ashley}
Transport planning is based on traffic forecasts which are subject to great uncertainties. These uncertainties have generally been ignored or, at least, not explicitly included in the planning process. This paper describes the principles behind the estimation of the uncertainty (or range of error) of the forecasts of a traffic model and discusses the means by which this information can be absorbed into the decision-making in transport planning projects. These principles have been applied to the… CONTINUE READING