Uncertainty in climate change modeling: can global sensitivity analysis be of help?

@article{Anderson2014UncertaintyIC,
  title={Uncertainty in climate change modeling: can global sensitivity analysis be of help?},
  author={Barry Anderson and Emanuele Borgonovo and Marzio Galeotti and Roberto Roson},
  journal={Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis},
  year={2014},
  volume={34 2},
  pages={271-93}
}
Integrated assessment models offer a crucial support to decisionmakers in climate policy making. For a full understanding and corroboration of model results, analysts ought to identify the exogenous variables that influence the model results the most (key drivers), appraise the relevance of interactions, and the direction of change associated with the simultaneous variation of uncertain variables. We show that such information can be directly extracted from the data set produced by Monte Carlo… CONTINUE READING
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