Uncertainty forecasts improve weather-related decisions and attenuate the effects of forecast error.

@article{Joslyn2012UncertaintyFI,
  title={Uncertainty forecasts improve weather-related decisions and attenuate the effects of forecast error.},
  author={S. Joslyn and J. LeClerc},
  journal={Journal of experimental psychology. Applied},
  year={2012},
  volume={18 1},
  pages={
          126-40
        }
}
Although uncertainty is inherent in weather forecasts, explicit numeric uncertainty estimates are rarely included in public forecasts for fear that they will be misunderstood. Of particular concern are situations in which precautionary action is required at low probabilities, often the case with severe events. At present, a categorical weather warning system is used. The work reported here tested the relative benefits of several forecast formats, comparing decisions made with and without… Expand
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