Uncertainty and forecast precision

  title={Uncertainty and forecast precision},
  author={Robert J. Corker and Sean Holly and Robert G. Ellis},
Abstract Macroeconomic forecasters typically report a single estimate per time period for each macroeconomic variable. But they rarely provide consumers of forecasts with information about the degree of confidence there is in the forecast or the likely range of dispersion of the actual outcome relative to the conditional forecast. Partly this is due to the non-linearity of the model and thus the cost of producing standard error bands. But there is also the problem that a mechanical stochastic… CONTINUE READING

Create an AI-powered research feed to stay up to date with new papers like this posted to ArXiv