Uncertainties associated with extrapolating L mode energy confinement to ITER and CIT

  title={Uncertainties associated with extrapolating L mode energy confinement to ITER and CIT},
  author={Kurt S. Riedel and Stanley M Kaye},
  journal={Nuclear Fusion},
The authors apply a two-step tokamak regression procedure to L-mode confinement data. The resulting scaling expression for ?E: is similar to other published scaling expressions. Using the random coeffcient model, tokamak-to-tokamak variations are included in the estimate of the uncertainty. The uncertainty factor in the predicted confinement times is calculated to be 19% for ITER and 35% for CIT. The confinement uncertainties are dominated by the propagation of uncertainties arising from the… 
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