UNDERSTANDING EL NINO IN OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS : Progress and Challenges

@article{Guilyardi2008UNDERSTANDINGEN,
  title={UNDERSTANDING EL NINO IN OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS : Progress and Challenges},
  author={Eric Guilyardi and Andrew T. Wittenberg and Alexey V. Fedorov and Matthew Collins and Chunzai Wang and Antonietta Capotondi and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh and Timothy N. Stockdale},
  journal={Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
  year={2008},
  volume={90},
  pages={325-340}
}
Determining how El Nino and its impacts may change over the next 10 to 100 years remains a difficult scientific challenge. Ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) are routinely used both to analyze El Nino mechanisms and teleconnections and to predict its evolution on a broad range of time scales, from seasonal to centennial. The ability to simulate El Nino as an emergent property of these models has largely improved over the last few years. Nevertheless, the diversity of… 

Figures from this paper

Recent progress on two types of El Niño: Observations, dynamics, and future changes

  • S. YehJ. KugS. An
  • Environmental Science
    Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
  • 2014
The climate community has made significant progress in observing, understanding and predicting El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the last 30 years. In spite of that, unresolved questions

Evaluation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the ACCESS coupled model simulations for CMIP5

One of the key performance measures for Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) is their ability to realistically simulate the prominent modes of climate variability. Here, we investigate the

El Niño and our future climate: where do we stand?

El Niño and La Niña comprise the dominant mode of tropical climate variability: the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. ENSO variations influence climate, ecosystems, and societies

ENSO and tropical Pacific metrics for coupled GCMs

It is proposed to devise standard metrics to both help modellers make progress and provide model end users with community agreed evaluation of the main processes important for ENSO.

Analysis of ENSO’s response to unforced variability and anthropogenic forcing using CESM

Comparisons of anthropogenic climate change with the effects of natural modulations in ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) metrics, as well as how internal variability may change with global warming, show the importance of careful assessment of ocean-atmosphere internal variability in E NSO projections.

Impact of Indo-Pacific Feedback Interactions on ENSO Dynamics Diagnosed Using Ensemble Climate Simulations

AbstractThe impact of Indo-Pacific climate feedback on the dynamics of El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated using an ensemble set of Indian Ocean decoupling experiments (DCPL),

On the Dynamical Mechanisms Governing El Niño–Southern Oscillation Irregularity

This study investigates the mechanisms by which short time-scale perturbations to atmospheric processes can affect El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in climate models. To this end a control

Role of the upper ocean structure in the response of ENSO-like SST variability to global warming

The response of El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like variability to global warming varies comparatively between the two different climate system models, i.e., the Meteorological Research

Uncertainties in simulated El Niño–Southern Oscillation arising from internal climate variability

Significant uncertainties exist in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) simulations. To investigate the source of these uncertainties, previous studies have primarily focused on the model itself;

A first look at ENSO in CMIP5

Introduction The El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring fluctuation that originates in the tropical Pacific region with severe weather and societal impacts worldwide (McPhaden
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 137 REFERENCES

Representing El Niño in Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere GCMs: The Dominant Role of the Atmospheric Component

A systematic modular approach to investigate the respective roles of the ocean and atmosphere in setting El Nino characteristics in coupled general circulation models is presented. Several

ENSO as an Integrating Concept in Earth Science

Research to address many intertwined issues regarding ENSO dynamics, impacts, forecasting, and applications remain unresolved will lead to progress across a broad range of scientific disciplines and provide an opportunity to educate the public and policy makers about the importance of climate variability and change in the modern world.

El Niño- or La Niña-like climate change?

The potential for the mean climate of the tropical Pacific to shift to more El Niño-like conditions as a result of human induced climate change is subject to a considerable degree of uncertainty. The

Predictability of El Niño over the past 148 years

Forecasts of El Niño climate events are routinely provided and distributed, but the limits of El Niño predictability are still the subject of debate. Some recent studies suggest that the

Is El Nino changing?

Apparent changes in the properties of El Nino could reflect the importance of random disturbances, but they could also be a consequence of decadal variations of the background state and the possibility that global warming is affecting those variations cannot be excluded.

Simulation of the El Niño Southern Oscillation: Results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

Abstract.The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) simulations of 17 global coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) are

El Niño in a changing climate: a multi-model study

Abstract. In many parts of the world, climate projections for the next century depend on potential changes in the properties of the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The current staus of these

ENSO at 6ka and 21ka from ocean–atmosphere coupled model simulations

We analyze how the characteristics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are changed in coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations of the mid-Holocene (MH) and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) performed as

Factors that affect the amplitude of El Nino in global coupled climate models

Abstract Historically, El Nino-like events simulated in global coupled climate models have had reduced amplitude compared to observations. Here, El Nino-like phenomena are compared in ten sensitivity

El Niño and Greenhouse Warming: Results from Ensemble Simulations with the NCAR CCSM

Abstract The changes in model ENSO behavior due to an increase in greenhouse gases, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Business-As-Usual scenario, are investigated
...