Turnout and Closeness: Evidence from 60 Years of Bavarian Mayoral Elections

@article{Arnold2015TurnoutAC,
  title={Turnout and Closeness: Evidence from 60 Years of Bavarian Mayoral Elections},
  author={Felix Arnold},
  journal={Political Behavior: Voting \& Public Opinion eJournal},
  year={2015}
}
  • F. Arnold
  • Published 1 March 2015
  • Economics
  • Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal
One prediction of the calculus of voting is that electoral closeness positively affects turnout via a higher probability of one vote being decisive. I test this theory with data on all mayoral elections in the German state of Bavaria between 1946 and 2009. Importantly, I use constitutionally prescribed two-round elections to measure electoral closeness and thereby improve on existing work that mostly uses ex- post measures that are prone to endogeneity. The results suggest that electoral… Expand
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