Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part II: Projected Response to Anthropogenic Warming

@article{Knutson2020TropicalCA,
  title={Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part II: Projected Response to Anthropogenic Warming},
  author={Thomas R. Knutson and Suzana J. Camargo and Johnny C. L. Chan and Kerry A. Emanuel and Chang‐Hoi Ho and James P. Kossin and Mrutyunjay Mohapatra and Masaki Satoh and Masato Sugi and Kevin J. E. Walsh and Liguang Wu},
  journal={Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
  year={2020}
}
Model projections of tropical cyclone (TC) activity response to anthropogenic warming in climate models are assessed. Observations, theory, and models, with increasing robustness, indicate rising global TC risk for some metrics that are projected to impact multiple regions. A 2°C anthropogenic global warming is projected to impact TC activity as follows. 1) The most confident TC-related projection is that sea level rise accompanying the warming will lead to higher storm inundation levels… 

Figures from this paper

Climate Models Accumulated Cyclone Energy Analysis

Looking at the connection between tropical cyclones and climate changes due to anthropogenic and natural effects, this work aims for information on understanding and how physical aspects of tropical

The response of tropical cyclone intensity to changes in environmental temperature

Abstract. Theory indicates that tropical cyclone (TC) intensity should respond to environmental temperature changes near the surface and in the TC outflow layer. While the sensitivity of TC intensity

Response of Global Tropical Cyclone Activity to Increasing CO2: Results from Downscaling CMIP6 Models

  • K. Emanuel
  • Environmental Science
    Journal of Climate
  • 2021
Global models comprising the sixth-generation Coupled Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are downscaled using a very high-resolution but simplified coupled atmosphere–ocean tropical

Projected Characteristic Changes of a Typical Tropical Cyclone under Climate Change in the South West Indian Ocean

During 2 January 2014, Cyclone Bejisa passed near La Réunion in the southwestern Indian Ocean, bringing wind speeds of 41 m s−1, an ocean swell of 7 m, and rainfall accumulations of 1025 mm over 48

Tropical Cyclone Activities in Warm Climate with Quadrupled CO2 Concentration Simulated by a New General Circulation Model

To understand the impacts of global warming on tropical cyclones (TCs), we compared various TC properties and environmental conditions during the pre‐industrial period with those in a warm climate

Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble

TLDR
There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms.

A globally consistent local-scale assessment of future tropical cyclone risk

There is considerable uncertainty surrounding future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency and intensity, particularly at local scales. This uncertainty complicates risk assessments and

The Response of Tropical Cyclone Intensity to Temperature Profile Change

Abstract. Theory indicates that tropical cyclone intensity should respond to changes in the vertical temperature profile. While the sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensity to sea surface

Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Response to Surface Warming in Aquaplanet Simulations With Uniform Thermal Forcing

While many modeling studies have attempted to estimate how tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation is impacted by climate change, the multitude of analysis techniques and methodologies have resulted in

Response of Tropical Cyclone Formation and Intensification Rates to Climate Warming in Idealized Simulations

There is currently no theory for the rate of tropical cyclone (TC) formation given a particular climate, so our understanding of the relationship between TC frequency and large‐scale environmental
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 207 REFERENCES

Projected changes in tropical cyclone activity under future warming scenarios using a high-resolution climate model

This study examines how characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) that are explicitly resolved in a global atmospheric model with horizontal resolution of approximately 28 km are projected to change

Recent intense hurricane response to global climate change

An Anthropogenic Climate Change Index (ACCI) is developed and used to investigate the potential global warming contribution to current tropical cyclone activity. The ACCI is defined as the difference

Response of Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity to a Global Warming Scenario in the IPCC AR4 CGCMs

This paper reports on an analysis of the tropical cyclone (TC) potential intensity (PI) and its control parameters in transient global warming simulations. Specifically, the TC PI is calculated for

Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity in High‐Resolution Large‐Ensemble Simulations

Projected future changes in global tropical cyclone (TC) activity are assessed using 5,000 year scale ensemble simulations for both current and 4 K surface warming climates with a 60 km global

Projected Response of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Intensification in a Global Climate Model

As one of the first global coupled climate models to simulate and predict category 4 and 5 (Saffir–Simpson scale) tropical cyclones (TCs) and their interannual variations, the High-Resolution

The Impact of Anthropogenic Climate Change on North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks

AbstractThe authors examine the change in tropical cyclone (TC) tracks that results from projected changes in the large-scale steering flow and genesis location from increasing greenhouse gases.

Tropical cyclones and climate change

Recent research has strengthened the understanding of the links between climate and tropical cyclones (TCs) on various timescales. Geological records of past climates have shown century‐long

Intense Precipitation Events Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in Response to a Warmer Climate and Increased CO2

AbstractIn this work the authors investigate possible changes in the intensity of rainfall events associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) under idealized forcing scenarios, including a uniformly

Anthropogenic influences on major tropical cyclone events

TLDR
Climate model simulations reveal that recent destructive tropical cyclones would have been equally intense in terms of wind speed but would have produced less rainfall if these events had occurred in pre-industrial climates, and in future climates they would have greater wind speeds and rainfall.

Response of tropical cyclone activity and structure to a global warming in a high-resolution global nonhydrostatic model

AbstractWe investigated future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity and structure using the outputs of a 14-km mesh climate simulation. A set of 30-year simulations were performed under
...