Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change Predictability Estimates Using a Statistical-dynamical Model

@inproceedings{DeMaria2011TropicalCI,
  title={Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change Predictability Estimates Using a Statistical-dynamical Model},
  author={Mark DeMaria},
  year={2011}
}
The recently established NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) has set a 5-year goal to reduce track and intensity forecast errors by 20%, and a 10-year goal for a 50% reduction. The 10-year goal corresponds to an average error reduction of 5% per year. Figure 1 shows the annual average 48 h Atlantic track and intensity errors of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) official forecasts from 1985 to 2009 and the corresponding linear trend lines. The track forecasts have been… CONTINUE READING