Trends in the skill of weather prediction at lead times of 1–14 days

  title={Trends in the skill of weather prediction at lead times of 1–14 days},
  author={Harvey Stern and Noel E. Davidson},
  journal={Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
  • H. Stern, N. Davidson
  • Published 1 October 2015
  • Environmental Science
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Unique, multi-year datasets of weather observations and official and experimental predictions are used to document trends in weather forecast accuracy and the current level of forecast skill specifically for Melbourne, Australia. The data are applied to quantify prediction skill out to Day-14 for maximum and minimum temperature, and for precipitation amount and probability. An innovative statistical analysis is applied to the data. This analysis clearly demonstrates the need for long time… 
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