Trends in the skill of weather prediction at lead times of 1–14 days
@article{Stern2015TrendsIT,
title={Trends in the skill of weather prediction at lead times of 1–14 days},
author={H. Stern and N. Davidson},
journal={Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
year={2015},
volume={141},
pages={2726-2736}
}Unique, multi-year datasets of weather observations and official and experimental predictions are used to document trends in weather forecast accuracy and the current level of forecast skill specifically for Melbourne, Australia. The data are applied to quantify prediction skill out to Day-14 for maximum and minimum temperature, and for precipitation amount and probability. An innovative statistical analysis is applied to the data. This analysis clearly demonstrates the need for long time… Expand
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