Trends in the skill of weather prediction at lead times of 1–14 days

@article{Stern2015TrendsIT,
  title={Trends in the skill of weather prediction at lead times of 1–14 days},
  author={Harvey Stern and Noel E. Davidson},
  journal={Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
  year={2015},
  volume={141},
  pages={2726-2736}
}
  • H. Stern, N. Davidson
  • Published 1 October 2015
  • Environmental Science
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Unique, multi-year datasets of weather observations and official and experimental predictions are used to document trends in weather forecast accuracy and the current level of forecast skill specifically for Melbourne, Australia. The data are applied to quantify prediction skill out to Day-14 for maximum and minimum temperature, and for precipitation amount and probability. An innovative statistical analysis is applied to the data. This analysis clearly demonstrates the need for long time… 
View via Publisher
rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
30 Citations
Highly Influential Citations
4
Background Citations
10
Methods Citations
5
Results Citations
1

30 Citations

Citation Type

Citation Type

Evaluating the role of mixed frequency real-time weather data in economic forecasts
TLDR
This thesis examines the role of weather forecasts in economic decision making and proposes a state-space model for evaluating multi-horizon forecasts based on the forecast revision structure implied by forecast rationality, which finds that significant improvements in predictive accuracy can be achieved when weather variables are incorporated into a mixed frequency forecasting model.
The Accuracy of Weather Predictions, from the Next Day to the Next Season — an Illustration from Australia
In a paper by the same author also being presented to a conference at the 2017 AMS Annual Meeting (Stern, 2017), it is demonstrated how positional and timing errors in the prediction of synoptic…
Waves to Weather: Exploring the limits of predictability of weather
Prediction of weather is a main goal of atmospheric science. Its importance to society is growing continuously due to factors such as vulnerability to natural disasters, the move to renewable energy…
Nowcasting Precipitation Using Weather Radar Data for Lithuania : the First Results
Although the accuracy and the duration of modern weather forecasts constantly increase together, numerical weather prediction methods still face a few drawbacks. Due to an extensive computing time…
Comparing the Skill Displayed by Two Statistical Schemes that Interpret the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System Control Model and the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) Model
For example, regarding the percentage variance about the seasonal norm for Day-1 forecasts explained, minimum temperature predictive skill has lifted from about 55% to 85%, maximum temperature…
CAMA Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis A State Space Approach to Evaluate Multi-horizon Forecasts CAMA Working Paper 67 / 2017 November 2017
We propose a state space modeling framework to evaluate a set of forecasts that target the same variable but are updated along the forecast horizon. The approach decomposes forecast errors into three…
A State Space Approach to Evaluate Multi-Horizon Forecasts
We propose a state space modeling framework to evaluate a set of forecasts that target the same variable but are updated along the forecast horizon. The approach decomposes forecast errors into three…
Transforming Wildfire Detection and Prediction Using New and Underused Sensor and Data Sources Integrated with Modeling
TLDR
The use of additional datasets from satellites with fire detection algorithms and adjacent non-utilized passes of VIIRS to enhance simulations of the 2015 Canyon Creek Complex improved fire growth forecast and compensated where standard, scheduled observations were missing or obscured by clouds.
HPC for Weather Forecasting
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is one of the first applications of scientific computing and remains an insatiable consumer of high-performance computing today. In the face of a half-century’s…
Tropical rainfall predictions from multiple seasonal forecast systems
Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, UK College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF),…
...
1
2
3
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 23 REFERENCES
The accuracy of weather forecasts for Melbourne, Australia
An analysis of the accuracy, and trends in the accuracy, of medium-range weather forecasts for Melbourne, Australia, is presented. The analysis shows that skill is evident in forecasts of…
Establishing the limits of predictability at Melbourne, Australia, using a knowledge-based forecasting system and NOAA's long-range NWP model
The work of Lorenz suggests that there is a 15-day limit to day-to-day predictability of the atmosphere. Ongoing increases in the accuracy of NWP model output continue to be evident. It was,…
Ability of a Poor Man's Ensemble to Predict the Probability and Distribution of Precipitation
Abstract A poor man's ensemble is a set of independent numerical weather prediction (NWP) model forecasts from several operational centers. Because it samples uncertainties in both the initial…
The Use of Model Output Statistics (MOS) in Objective Weather Forecasting
Abstract Model Output Statistics (MOS) is an objective weather forecasting technique which consists of determining a statistical relationship between a predictand and variables forecast by a…
Operational Consensus Forecasts
Abstract The objective consensus forecasting (OCF) system is an automated operational forecasting system that adapts to underlying numerical model upgrades within 30 days and generally outperforms…
Ensemble forecasting
TLDR
The extent to which the current ECMWF ensemble prediction system is capable of predicting flow-dependent variations in uncertainty is assessed for the large-scale flow in mid-latitudes.
A Comparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP Global Ensemble Prediction Systems
Abstract The present paper summarizes the methodologies used at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC), and the National Centers…
Improved Skill for the Anomaly Correlation of Geopotential Heights at 500 hPa
This paper addresses the anomaly correlation of the 500-hPa geopotential heights from a suite of global multimodels and from a model-weighted ensemble mean called the superensemble. This procedure…
THE APPLICATION OF WEATHER DERIVATIVES TO MITIGATE THE FINANCIAL RISK OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS.
Evidence of the challenge faced by the meteorological community to become skilled in applying risk management products from the financial markets is growing. This paper presents an approach to the…
Combining Predictive Schemes in Short-Term Forecasting
TLDR
It is shown that substantial gains might be expected for optimal weighting of the combination, and the combined Markov-NWP scheme may provide a possible simple alternative to the MOS approach for predictions up to long-range forecasting.
...
1
2
3
...