Trends in global tropical cyclone activity over the past twenty years (1986–2005)

  title={Trends in global tropical cyclone activity over the past twenty years (1986–2005)},
  author={Philip J. Klotzbach},
  journal={Geophysical Research Letters},
  • P. Klotzbach
  • Published 1 May 2006
  • Environmental Science
  • Geophysical Research Letters
The recent destructive Atlantic hurricane seasons and several recent publications have sparked debate over whether warming tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are causing more intense, longer‐lived tropical cyclones. This paper investigates worldwide tropical cyclone frequency and intensity to determine trends in activity over the past twenty years during which there has been an approximate 0.2°–0.4°C warming of SSTs. The data indicate a large increasing trend in tropical cyclone intensity… 

Tropical cyclone activity in global warming scenario

Research efforts focused on assessing the potential for changes in tropical cyclone activity in the greenhouse-warmed climate have progressed since the IPCC assessment in 1996. Vulnerability to

Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend?

  • G. HollandP. Webster
  • Environmental Science
    Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
  • 2007
It is concluded that the overall trend in SSTs, and tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers is substantially influenced by greenhouse warming.

The impact of tropical sea surface temperatures on various measures of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity

SummarySince 1995 there has been a resurgence of Atlantic hurricane activity, with 2005 being the most active and destructive hurricane season on record. The influence of sea surface temperatures

Tropical cyclones and climate change

Recent research has strengthened the understanding of the links between climate and tropical cyclones (TCs) on various timescales. Geological records of past climates have shown century‐long

Weak Tropical Cyclones Dominate the Poleward Migration of the Annual Mean Location of Lifetime Maximum Intensity of Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclones since 1980

AbstractThe poleward migration of the annual mean location of tropical cyclone (TC) lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) has been identified in the major TC basins of the globe over the past 30 years,

Recent historically low global tropical cyclone activity

Tropical cyclone accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) has exhibited strikingly large global interannual variability during the past 40‐years. In the pentad since 2006, Northern Hemisphere and global

Implications of tropical cyclone power dissipation index

Upward trends in the power dissipation index (PDI) in the North Atlantic (NA) and western North Pacific (WNP) basins and increases in the number and proportion of intense hurricanes (categories 4 and

Observed recent trends in tropical cyclone rainfall over the North Atlantic and the North Pacific

[1] In this study, we use Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission and Global Precipitation Climatology Project rainfall data together with historical storm track records to examine the trend of

Potential Large-Scale Forcing Mechanisms Driving Enhanced North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity since the Mid-1990s

AbstractA significant increase of tropical cyclone (TC) frequency is observed over the North Atlantic (NATL) basin during the recent decades (1995–2014). In this study, the changes in large-scale

Influence of Global Warming on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensities during 2015

AbstractThe climate of 2015 was characterized by a strong El Nino, global warmth, and record-setting tropical cyclone (TC) intensity for western North Pacific typhoons. In this study, the highest TC



Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years

An index of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes based on the total dissipation of power, integrated over the lifetime of the cyclone, is defined and shows that this index has increased markedly since the mid-1970s, due to both longer storm lifetimes and greater storm intensities.

Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment

A large increase was seen in the number and proportion of hurricanes reaching categories 4 and 5 and the number of cyclones and cyclone days has decreased in all basins except the North Atlantic during the past decade.

The Recent Increase in Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Causes and Implications

The years 1995 to 2000 experienced the highest level of North Atlantic hurricane activity in the reliable record, and the present high level of hurricane activity is likely to persist for an additional ∼10 to 40 years.

Climate Trends Associated with Multidecadal Variability of Atlantic Hurricane Activity

Anomalous long-term variations of ocean heat transport offer an attractive and intuitively creditable explanation for many long-term climate trends. Multidecadal variations of intense Atlantic

Climate Assessment for 1999

Abstract The global climate during 1999 was impacted by Pacific cold episode (La Nina) conditions throughout theyear, which resulted in regional precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns


Abstract A global observational study of atmospheric conditions associated with tropical disturbance and storm development is presented. This study primarily uses upper air observations which have

The dependence of hurricane intensity on climate

Tropical cyclones rank with earthquakes as the major geophysical causes of loss of life and property1. It is therefore of practical as well as scientific interest to estimate the changes in tropical

Hurricanes and Global Warming.

This paper reviews recent research on tropical cyclones and climate change from the perspective of event risk—the physical behavior of storms; vulnerability—the characteristics of a system that

Warming of the World Ocean

We quantify the interannual-to-decadal variability of the heat content (mean temperature) of the world ocean from the surface through 3000-meter depth for the period 1948 to 1998. The heat content of

Analyses of global sea surface temperature 1856–1991

Global analyses of monthly sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from 1856 to 1991 are produced using three statistically based methods: optimal smoothing (OS), the Kalrnan filter (KF) and optimal